Orioles 2026: 3 Players Poised for Breakout Seasons — 2 Fans Should Stop Hoping For

The Baltimore Orioles are entering the 2026 season with a mix of hope and realism. After a challenging 2025 campaign that ended with a 75-87 record and a last-place finish in the AL East, the franchise has aggressively retooled its roster. Veteran additions like Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward provide stability and power, while the team’s pitching staff has gotten younger with high-upside arms like Shane Baz joining the fold.

Yet the Orioles’ ultimate success hinges on their young core — the players who have yet to fully realize their potential but possess the tools to transform Baltimore into a legitimate contender. Conversely, not every young player will thrive, and some are likely to frustrate fans in 2026. Here’s a deep dive into three Orioles poised for breakout seasons and two who should worry fans.

Three Orioles Poised for Breakouts in 2026

1. Dylan Beavers – The Power-Speed Package Ready to Explode

Dylan Beavers made his long-awaited MLB debut in 2025, appearing in 35 games. While a small sample size, Beavers showcased flashes of the type of power-speed combination that excites scouts and fans alike. His six-foot-five frame allows him to drive the ball to the pull side, and he displayed impressive launch angles on his batted balls, with a 37.3% sweet spot launch rate.

Beavers isn’t just a power hitter; his plate discipline stands out. At Triple-A Norfolk, he posted an 86th percentile chase rate and an 83rd percentile whiff rate, skills that translated to the majors, where he walked 19% of the time. Combine that with elite sprint speed (89th percentile), and Beavers can not only rack up extra-base hits but also create havoc on the basepaths.

With a more extended look in the lineup in 2026, Beavers has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order force who contributes both runs and power consistently.

2. Jackson Holliday – A Former Top Prospect Ready to Shine

Jackson Holliday, once MLB.com’s top-ranked Orioles prospect, has yet to deliver the superstar impact expected after 209 major league games, but 2026 could be his breakout year. Holliday, who turned 22 in December, made a critical improvement in 2025: his chase rate dropped from 27.2% in 2024 to 22.3%, placing him in the 85th percentile. This adjustment resulted in fewer swings at bad pitches, reducing whiffs to 24.5% and strikeouts to 21.6%.

This more selective approach suggests Holliday is finally acclimating to major league pitching. With natural tools that include power, speed, and defensive versatility, 2026 may finally be the year Holliday solidifies himself as an All-Star and emerges as a cornerstone for the Orioles’ lineup.

3. Shane Baz – The Young Ace Baltimore Needs

Shane Baz enters 2026 as the Orioles’ most important pitching prospect. After a 4.87 ERA in 2025, much of the concern centered on his home run rate (1.41 HR/9), which was inflated by temporary home games at the hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field following damage to Tropicana Field. Road performance showed a much lower 0.86 HR/9, indicating potential for a bounce-back.

Baz possesses two elite pitches: a 97 mph fastball with a high run value and a knuckle curve rated 125 in FanGraphs’ Stuff+, second only to Framber Valdez among curveballs. Refining his mix with a cutter, slider, and change-up could allow Baz to dominate at the major league level. If he realizes that potential, he could anchor the Orioles’ rotation and emerge as a true frontline starter in 2026.

Two Orioles Fans Should Prepare to Be Disappointed

While the breakout candidates provide hope, two players face difficult paths in 2026.

1. Coby Mayo – Stalled Development Raises Concerns

Coby Mayo’s 2025 campaign exposed persistent holes in his swing and plate approach. While he cut his strikeout rate from a putrid 47.8% in 2024 to 30.6% in 2025, it remains far above league average. His contact quality is concerning, with just a 36% hard-hit rate.

Mayo also struggled in Triple-A Norfolk, slashing .226/.318/.452 in 45 games, and with Pete Alonso entrenched at first base, his opportunities are limited. Attempts to move him to other positions appear unlikely to succeed. Fans should temper expectations for Mayo in 2026 unless he shows a remarkable adjustment in spring training.

2. Ryan Mountcastle – Declining Plate Discipline Puts Him at Risk

Ryan Mountcastle, 28, enters 2026 with a shrinking role. Last season tied his career-worst strikeout rate (27.5%) and a historically low walk rate (4.2%). His chase rate was in the fifth percentile, and whiff rate in the eighth percentile, highlighting serious struggles in pitch recognition.

With Alonso at first base and a younger core of talent ready to seize playing time, Mountcastle faces limited opportunities to contribute. Unless he dramatically improves his approach at the plate, 2026 is likely to be another year of frustration for both him and Orioles fans.

The Bigger Picture: Orioles’ Youth Movement Meets Veteran Leadership

Baltimore’s 2026 roster is a blend of young, high-upside talent and seasoned veterans. Players like Alonso and Ward provide the middle-of-the-order power and stability, while the young core — Beavers, Holliday, Baz, and Samuel Basallo — represents the future of the franchise.

Analysts are optimistic, noting that the Orioles’ mix of youth and experience gives them a chance to compete in the AL East despite tough division rivals like the Yankees and Blue Jays. If the breakout candidates thrive, Baltimore could be a World Series contender rather than a rebuilding team.

2026 Outlook: Who to Watch

• Dylan Beavers – Expect power and on-base ability to translate into a regular major league role.

• Jackson Holliday – Potential AL All-Star, poised for breakout if he continues his improved plate discipline.

• Shane Baz – Ace potential; a refined pitch mix could make him the staff leader.

• Coby Mayo – Watch with caution; unlikely to earn regular playing time unless he makes adjustments.

• Ryan Mountcastle – Fans should temper expectations; his opportunities are limited.

With a deep mix of talent, the Orioles’ season will hinge on the balance between the emerging stars and the underperforming veterans. 2026 promises excitement for fans, but also patience — not everyone will thrive under the bright lights of Camden Yards.