🚨 The Framber Valdez sweepstakes may not be as straightforward as expected. With the Mets’ president signaling caution, the Orioles are watching closely—and could be ready to capitalize (J)

Could David Stearns’ Pitching Philosophy Push the Mets Away From the Best Starter Left on the Market?

As the MLB offseason continues to take shape, the market for elite starting pitching has begun to thin rapidly. With the Houston Astros’ recent signing of Japanese free-agent pitcher Tatsuya Imai to a three-year, $63 million contract, many around baseball now believe the race to land Framber Valdez has narrowed significantly.

At this point, league insiders widely view the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets as the final two serious contenders for Valdez — the most accomplished frontline starter still available in free agency. While teams like the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, and Atlanta Braves are reportedly seeking high-end pitching help, none have been directly connected to Valdez in a meaningful way this winter.

On the surface, this would appear to heavily favor the Mets. After all, Steve Cohen remains the most aggressive spender in Major League Baseball, a reputation he reinforced last offseason by handing Juan Soto a record-breaking contract. Conventional wisdom suggests that when the Mets truly want a player, money is rarely the obstacle.

But baseball decisions are not made by owners alone — and this is where the situation becomes far more complicated.

David Stearns’ Track Record Raises Serious Questions

Since taking over as president of baseball operations for the Mets, David Stearns has brought a clear, disciplined philosophy with him — particularly when it comes to starting pitching contracts. That philosophy could ultimately steer New York away from Framber Valdez, even if he represents the best remaining arm on the market.

Stearns has long been reluctant to hand out massive, long-term deals to pitchers, a stance shaped by both analytics and experience. During his tenure as the top decision-maker for the Milwaukee Brewers, Stearns consistently avoided contracts that extended pitchers deep into their 30s at premium annual values.

Instead, his strategy emphasized:

Developing pitching internally
Trading pitchers before they reached peak market value
Avoiding long-term injury risk tied to arms

That history matters — because Valdez is reportedly seeking a five- or six-year deal worth $30–32 million annually, placing his projected contract value in the $160–180 million range.

That level of commitment is precisely the type Stearns has avoided throughout his career.

Lessons From Milwaukee Still Loom Large

Although Stearns stepped away from Milwaukee before some major decisions were finalized, his fingerprints remain all over the organization’s philosophy.

The Brewers:

Did not extend Corbin Burnes, eventually trading him
Let Brandon Woodruff reach free agency without a massive long-term commitment
Routinely flipped valuable pitching assets before expensive extensions

Those choices weren’t accidents — they reflected a core belief that investing heavily in pitchers beyond their arbitration years often carries more downside than upside.

That belief appears unchanged in New York.

Mets’ Recent Pitching Moves Tell the Story

Since joining the Mets, Stearns has been active — but notably conservative — when it comes to starting pitching.

Last offseason, the Mets:

Signed Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal
Signed Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million contract
Added Clay Holmes, converting him from reliever to starter, on a three-year, $38 million deal

Collectively, the Mets spent nearly $150 million, but spread that money across mid-rotation arms rather than committing to a true ace like Blake Snell, Max Fried, or Corbin Burnes.

This pattern strongly suggests Stearns prefers depth and flexibility over star power at the top of the rotation.

If that approach holds, it could once again prevent the Mets from making a serious run at Valdez.

Why Framber Valdez Is Different — and Still Risky

There’s no denying Valdez’s talent. The left-hander has established himself as one of the most reliable starters in baseball, known for:

Elite ground-ball rates
Ability to pitch deep into games
Proven postseason experience

In a vacuum, Valdez fits perfectly atop nearly any rotation — including the Mets’. But he also comes with concerns that may give Stearns pause:

Heavy workload history
Reliance on a sinker-heavy profile that may age unpredictably
Long-term durability questions

For a front office built on risk mitigation, those factors matter.

The Orioles May Be Willing to Take the Leap

While the Mets weigh philosophy and precedent, the Baltimore Orioles may be approaching this offseason with a very different mindset.

Baltimore has already shown a newfound willingness to spend aggressively, shedding its long-standing reputation as a budget-conscious franchise. With a young, talented core already in place, the Orioles may view Valdez as the missing piece — the veteran ace who can stabilize a playoff-caliber rotation.

Unlike the Mets, Baltimore:

Has fewer long-term payroll commitments
Faces less internal pressure to maintain flexibility
Can justify risk as a necessary step toward contention

If Valdez is indeed seeking maximum years and dollars, the Orioles could be far more comfortable meeting those demands.

Is This a Philosophical Crossroads for the Mets?

This offseason may represent a defining moment for David Stearns’ tenure in New York.

On one hand, the Mets have the financial muscle to outbid Baltimore without hesitation. On the other, Stearns has built his career on resisting precisely that kind of deal.

If the Mets pass on Valdez:

It would reinforce Stearns’ commitment to long-term sustainability
It would frustrate fans eager for a true ace
It could allow a direct competitor to land the best starter available

If they pursue him aggressively:

It would mark a notable shift in philosophy
It would signal Cohen’s influence outweighing front-office caution
It would reshape expectations for future offseasons

Either path carries consequences.

Final Thoughts: Advantage Orioles?

While most outsiders still assume the Mets hold the edge due to financial power, the reality may be far murkier. If David Stearns stays true to his convictions, New York could very well bow out of the Framber Valdez sweepstakes, leaving Baltimore with a clear path to land the prize.

In that scenario, the Orioles wouldn’t be stealing Valdez because they outspent the Mets — they’d be winning because they were willing to do what New York wouldn’t.

As the offseason unfolds, all eyes will be on Stearns. Whether his philosophy holds firm or bends under pressure could decide where the best remaining starter in baseball ultimately lands.