IMAGE: St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) salutes the fans after he was ceremonially removed before the start of the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. / Jeff Curry / Imagn Images
Nolan Arenado Trade Rumors Heat Up: What the Cardinals Can Expect in Return

Nolan Arenado’s name has floated around the trade block for years, but this offseason feels different. The longtime face at third base for the St.

Louis Cardinals might finally be on the move. And while the star power of Arenado still carries weight, the reality is clear: his trade value isn’t what it used to be.

Once considered a generational talent at the hot corner, Arenado has seen his production dip since finishing third in MVP voting back in 2022. His glove remains elite, but the bat hasn’t kept up the same pace. After declining a trade to the Houston Astros last offseason, Arenado now appears more open to relocation-willing to consider new destinations as he enters what could be the final chapter of his storied career.

For the Cardinals, this creates a tricky situation. They’re not just trading a player-they’re navigating how to maximize value from a declining asset with a hefty contract. But if their recent trade of Willson Contreras is any indication, the return for Arenado might already be in plain sight.

Learning from the Contreras Deal

The Cardinals’ decision to send catcher Willson Contreras to the Boston Red Sox offers a blueprint for what Arenado’s trade might look like. In that deal, St.

Louis didn’t net any top-tier prospects. Instead, they focused on raising the floor of the roster-adding depth and plugging holes with controllable, lower-risk players.

Boston sent back a trio of pieces: Hunter Dobbins, a potential back-end starter or bullpen arm; Yhoiker Fajardo, a prospect with some upside; and Blake Aita, who adds organizational depth. None are franchise-altering names, but all could play a role in stabilizing a roster that’s been stretched thin by injuries and inconsistency.

The approach wasn’t about chasing ceiling-it was about building a sturdier foundation. And for a Cardinals team that’s trying to retool on the fly, that might be the smarter path forward with Arenado too.

The Money Factor

Of course, the big obstacle in any Arenado trade is the contract. He’s owed $31 million over the next two seasons-a figure that’s tough to swallow for most teams, especially given his recent decline at the plate. That means the Cardinals are likely going to have to eat a significant chunk of that money to make any deal work.

Look back at the Contreras trade. St.

Louis had to send $8 million along with him just to facilitate the move-and Contreras arguably has more reliable value moving forward. If that’s the going rate for a productive catcher, the price tag for moving Arenado could be even steeper.

We’re likely talking about the Cardinals needing to absorb $15-20 million of Arenado’s remaining salary to get a meaningful return. Without that financial flexibility, the trade market shrinks fast. Teams may love Arenado’s glove and leadership, but not at full price.

What the Cardinals Should Expect
So what does a realistic Arenado return look like? If the Cardinals are willing to eat a significant portion of the contract, they could land a package similar to the Contreras deal-mid-level prospects, controllable arms, and organizational depth. Maybe not flashy, but functional.

That type of return won’t excite the fanbase the way a blockbuster might, but it could help the Cardinals in the long run. After a rough stretch that’s exposed the thin margins on their roster, St.

Louis needs to patch more than just one hole. Trading Arenado might not bring back a future All-Star, but it could bring back three or four players who help stabilize the roster.

And in today’s game, where depth wins just as often as star power, that might be the smarter play.

A New Chapter for Nolan-and the Cardinals
Arenado still has plenty to offer the right team. His defense is as sharp as ever, and in the right environment-maybe with a shorter porch or a more contact-driven lineup-his bat could bounce back. But for the Cardinals, this is about reshaping the roster and getting younger, cheaper, and more flexible.

If they play it right, this could be a move that benefits both sides. Arenado gets a fresh start.

The Cardinals get a chance to reset. And both get to turn the page on an era that, while it didn’t end in disaster, never quite lived up to the sky-high expectations.