LOS ANGELES – Japanese free agent pitcher Tatsuya Imai has generated interest in Major League Baseball, but his market remains surprisingly quiet as the January 2 posting window rapidly approaches, leaving teams and observers wondering where he might land for the 2026 season.

Imai has held meetings with multiple MLB clubs in Los Angeles, including the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and New York Yankees, among others, but he admitted over the weekend that concrete offers have yet to materialize, signaling a slower-than-expected free agency process.

The Japanese right-hander’s posting window closes on Jan. 2, and teams traditionally prefer to finalize deals a few days in advance, allowing time to conduct physical examinations, review contractual terms, and ensure roster flexibility before the new season begins.

Imai’s situation is unusual, considering his impressive 2025 season in Nippon Professional Baseball, where he pitched 163 2/3 innings with a 1.92 ERA, showcasing durability, control, and an ability to dominate opposing lineups over a significant workload.

Despite these strong numbers, Imai’s free agency has not mirrored the rapid attention received by recent Japanese pitchers entering MLB, such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto with the Dodgers or Roki Sasaki, both of whom commanded substantial contracts despite limited exposure in the majors.

One question circulating in baseball circles is whether Yamamoto’s dominance could be indirectly affecting Imai’s market, creating an elevated benchmark that makes teams hesitant to offer long-term deals to a pitcher whose accolades do not yet match those of the Dodgers’ star.

Yamamoto, after all, had an extraordinary NPB career and demonstrated immediate value in MLB, justifying the Dodgers’ investment despite a rookie season shortened by injury, setting a precedent for exceptional Japanese pitchers entering the league.

For teams considering Imai, there may be implicit comparisons to Yamamoto, even if unfair, shaping risk assessments and influencing contract structure, particularly regarding guaranteed length, average annual value, and long-term financial exposure.

Historically, comparisons between Japanese pitchers are almost inevitable, with luminaries like Hideo Nomo, Masahiro Tanaka, and Kenta Maeda establishing successful transitions to MLB, though none have matched Yamamoto’s peak performance or sustainability in 2025.

Other contemporary Japanese pitchers—Shota Imanaga, Yu Darvish, and Yusei Kikuchi—have had varying degrees of success, but their performances have yet to reach the same heights or consistency demonstrated by Yamamoto, raising the bar for incoming free agents like Imai.

While Imai’s 2025 performance in Japan is strong, MLB teams may be hesitant to commit to a long-term deal, especially if they perceive that he may not replicate Yamamoto’s impact immediately or sustain success over multiple seasons.

It’s unlikely Imai will command a contract approaching Yamamoto’s record-setting 12-year, $325 million deal, though there may be interest in shorter-term contracts with respectable average annual value (AAV), providing both teams and Imai flexibility as he adjusts to MLB competition.

Munetaka Murakami’s case is often cited in this context: coming off injury and with questions about MLB adaptation, Murakami secured a deal that balanced risk with potential upside, suggesting that Imai may follow a similar path with a “prove-it” structure rather than a marquee long-term contract.

Imai’s transition faces additional challenges beyond contract comparisons, including the steep learning curve from NPB to MLB, which has historically limited some pitchers’ ability to adapt, particularly in terms of pitch sequencing, velocity adjustments, and facing more aggressive hitters.

Shota Imanaga serves as one reference point: his initial success in MLB was promising, but he struggled to maintain consistency over time, highlighting the difficulty of sustaining elite performance after moving from NPB to the majors.

For Imai, this learning curve may influence how teams evaluate risk, shaping contract terms, innings limits, and expectations for the first season, with organizations likely cautious about overcommitting financially without seeing evidence of sustained success against MLB hitters.

Some analysts suggest that Yamamoto’s success may have inadvertently created a shadow effect over Imai’s free agency, inflating expectations and subtly pressuring teams to compare the two despite differences in career trajectory, accolades, and pitching profile.

The Japanese pitcher himself has hinted that he may prefer to join a team where he can establish his own identity and avoid direct comparisons to Yamamoto, potentially explaining why he has not gravitated toward the Dodgers despite prior rumors and speculation.

Teams considering Imai will weigh multiple factors, including pitching mechanics, strikeout-to-walk ratio, groundball rates, adaptability to MLB velocity, and potential to contribute as a starter or bullpen option, balancing upside with fiscal prudence.

Imai’s style and 2025 performance suggest that he could be a valuable rotation piece, capable of providing 150–170 innings with a low ERA, but scouts and executives may remain cautious, seeking measurable indicators that his NPB dominance can translate to consistent MLB results.

There is optimism that Imai will secure a deal before the Jan. 2 posting window closes, likely in the form of a short-term contract with club options or moderate guarantees, giving him a chance to prove himself and set the stage for larger deals if he excels at the major league level.

Regardless of where he signs, Yamamoto’s looming presence will shape the narrative of Imai’s rookie season, with fans and media inevitably drawing comparisons while observing how Imai navigates the transition, adapts to MLB hitters, and performs under pressure.

Imai’s case underscores a recurring challenge for Japanese free agents: balancing prior accomplishments in NPB with realistic expectations in MLB, managing comparisons to stars, and securing opportunities that allow for both development and exposure at the highest level.

For Imai, the 2026 season represents both a challenge and an opportunity: to carve out his own legacy, demonstrate his ability to succeed at the highest level, and validate the investment made by the team that chooses to give him a chance.

Even if his contract does not approach Yamamoto’s financial magnitude, Imai’s performance and adaptation will ultimately define his market value, reputation, and long-term trajectory, creating the potential for future, more lucrative opportunities in MLB.

As the posting window nears its end, all eyes will remain on Imai, the teams that pursue him, and how quickly he can adjust to life in Major League Baseball, while Yamamoto’s shadow looms large, shaping perceptions, expectations, and the narrative of his rookie campaign.