The most active team in this young offseason has been the Los Angeles Angels. I suppose when you’re not in the market for Juan Soto or all that realistic of a suitor for some of the other upper echelon free agents, it would be wise and sneaky to sign some of the lower tiered players. This week they added Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year deal worth $63 million. As several have pointed out, it’s a good hint of what New York Mets free agents Sean Manaea and Luis Severino will be seeking.

Kikuchi’s $21M salary should boost the fortunes of frontline pitching comps, most notably Manaea but likely also Severino, Flaherty, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Buehler (Snell, Burnes and Fried will be well above of course) https://t.co/Tno7qwTUlu

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 25, 2024

There is one major caveat here. Kikuchi was traded midseason therefore ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. The Angels weren’t penalized at all for adding him. Teams won’t have the same courtesy if they ink Manaea or Severino. Varying penalties based on payroll and whether they were a revenue sharing ball club will determine what other teams are punished with for trying to get better. MLB loves to hand slaps on wrists for teams doing their utmost to compete.

Is a $21 million AAV realistic for Mets free agents Sean Manaea and Luis Severino?

In the case of Manaea, this is probably right around what he should get. He’s around the same age as Kikuchi. The history is the same with some good yet not Cy Young worthy seasons on the resume. Both lefties finished the year strong and proved their worth right before free agency.

Severino is different. He had a good bounce back campaign and yet he wasn’t nearly as ace-like as Manaea. He seemed to fix the problems that plagued him in his final year with the New York Yankees while Manaea continued his evolution. Fixing a problem and not getting the same results as a pitcher had in his prime isn’t nearly as attractive as another who made a change and had a career year.

Three years and $63 million seems fair enough for Manaea and not the kind of offer Scott Boras should balk at. The agent of both Manaea and Kikuchi, his task is to convince a team other than the Mets Manaea is worth the QO penalties that could come with adding him this winter.

Severino should see a boost in AAV, but not nearly to the same extent. The Mets would be wise to wait him out if interested in a reunion. A pitcher with an ERA just under 4.00 without dazzling strikeout totals isn’t so coveted especially when you start to lose draft picks.

Earlier this month, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Manaea would receive a three-year deal worth $60 million. That’s darn near close to what Kikuchi got and if suitors are tough bargainers, pinching off those last $3 million because of the QO penalties would be a tactic to use. Severino was predicted to get three years and $51 million which is an AAV of $17 million. This is probably the higher end of what he could get. I’d expect, with him being 30 and a history of injury, the third year could be a team or mutual option.

A third year with either (or any, really) pitcher comes with risk. It’s not a durable position. At the rate Kikuchi helped set, Manaea remains appealing. The same isn’t true for Severino.