Kyle Tucker entered the offseason as the top position player on the free-agent board, but so far, his market has been anything but straightforward. What should’ve been a high-stakes bidding war has turned into a waiting game, and the reasons behind that hesitation are starting to come into focus.
Let’s start with the ending. Tucker’s final two months in Chicago weren’t just quiet-they were uncomfortable.
The Cubs brought him in with hopes of a postseason push, but instead, his performance dipped and whispers started circulating around the league. Some questioned his drive.
Others pointed to his availability-or lack thereof-as a growing concern. Injuries have nagged him in each of the last two seasons, and even when he tried to gut it out last year, he wasn’t the same player who’d flashed All-Star upside earlier in the season.
Now, combine those red flags with the larger uncertainty looming over MLB’s labor landscape, and it’s not hard to see why teams are hesitant to commit big money over a long-term deal. That’s why names like Buster Olney are floating an alternative path forward: a short-term, high-AAV contract that allows Tucker to reset his value and re-enter the market in a stronger position.
Two potential structures have been tossed into the conversation-both aggressive in annual value. One is a one-year deal worth $52 million with a matching option for 2027.
The other is a two-year, $86 million pact with options after both 2027 and 2028. Either version would push a team over the first tier of the luxury tax threshold, which brings us back to the Cubs.
If Tucker is going to take a short-term deal, the Cubs should be in the mix. Yes, it would mean crossing into luxury tax territory-something Chicago has been hesitant to do in recent years-but the upside is hard to ignore.
When Tucker’s healthy and locked in, he changes the shape of a lineup. He’s a left-handed bat with power, a capable outfielder, and when he’s rolling, he’s the kind of player who forces opposing pitchers to alter their game plan.
There are valid long-term concerns here. Tucker’s recent injury history and questions about his late-season effort aren’t things you just brush aside.
But on a short-term deal? That’s a calculated risk worth taking, especially for a Cubs team that’s trying to thread the needle between contending now and building for the future.
Of course, the Cubs won’t be the only ones in the room. The Dodgers and Blue Jays are also reportedly in the mix, and from Tucker’s perspective, those situations might be more appealing.
Playing half your games in Dodger Stadium or the climate-controlled Rogers Centre could do wonders for a player looking to rebuild his offensive numbers. Chicago, with its unpredictable weather and pressure-packed expectations, might not be the ideal backdrop for a bounce-back campaign.
Still, if the Cubs are serious about competing in the near term, they can’t let Tucker walk without making a real push. Even if it means stepping out of their financial comfort zone.
Because in the right scenario, Kyle Tucker could still be a game-changer. And the Cubs know that better than anyone.
