It’s that time of the year. Teams are trying to punch in their cards for the postseason. As of now, only two teams are promised a spot in the playoffs: the NFC’s Los Angeles Rams (11-3) and the AFC’s Denver Broncos (12-2).
Nine other teams have the opportunity to clinch a playoff spot in Week 16, though, which just goes to show you how big the splits are for teams on the right or wrong side of the playoff race right now. One of those nine is the Green Bay Packers.
Here’s how the Packers can get in. There are two scenarios.
- First, if the Packers win against the Chicago Bears, they need the Detroit Lions to lose or tie against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.
- The alternative is the Packers tying against the Bears, with the Lions losing to the Steelers.
So for Green Bay to clinch this week, they’ll need their former quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to get the job done (or at least tie) against the Lions. All-time, Rodgers is 18-8 versus Detroit in his NFL career.
Below is the NFC playoff percentage, per the New York Times/The Athletic simulations:
- Clinched: Los Angeles Rams
- >99%: Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks
- 99%: San Francisco 49ers
- 90%: Green Bay Packers
- 84%: Chicago Bears
- 76%: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 27%: Detroit Lions
- 24%: Carolina Panthers
- <1%: Dallas Cowboys
Here are the NFC North title percentages:
- 52%: Chicago Bears
- 43%: Green Bay Packers
- 5%: Detroit Lions
And finally, this is what the Wild Card race looks like in the NFC:
- 86%: San Francisco 49ers
- 69%: Seattle Seahawks
- 47%: Green Bay Packers
- 43%: Los Angeles Rams
- 32%: Chicago Bears
- 22%: Detroit Lions
As a reminder, three teams will make the playoffs as a wild-card team. Functionally, the NFC East and NFC South have been eliminated from wild-card contention, as those divisions will more than likely just get one team in via the division winner process.
Basically, the wild-card race is coming down to six teams, two of which will win the NFC North and NFC West, meaning that there are four contestants fighting for three seats at the table.
Here’s how the NYT/The Athletic simulation projects the NFC standings by the end of the year:
- Los Angeles Rams: 13-4
- Green Bay Packers: 11-5-1 (NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6 (NFC East winner)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-8 (NFC South winner)
- Seattle Seahawks: 13-4
- San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
- Chicago Bears: 11-6
- Detroit Lions: 10-7 (first team out)
- Dallas Cowboys: 8-8-1
- Carolina Panthers: 8-9
If that’s how it plays out, the Packers will be the only team in the NFC that will be hosting a game on wild-card weekend that has a better record than the road team. It’s been a weird NFL season, to say the very least.
