Not surprisingly, the SF Giants have been connected to power-hitting outfielder Cody Bellinger in recent days. He would certainly check off several boxes for the Giants, but there are three reasons they should stay away from Bellinger.
1. Extreme home and road splits in 2025
When the New York Yankees traded for Bellinger last year, it was pretty easy to envision his bat playing up at Yankee Stadium. That is exactly how it played out in his lone season with the Yankees. The left-handed bat tallied a .909 OPS at Yankees Stadium, compared to a .715 OPS on the road.
This is part of what makes evaluating Bellinger so difficult. Which player is he? Is he the star-level player at home, or is he a player that is closer to a league-average hitter on the road?
These are tough questions to answer. Bellinger’s power is often down the line, which could work at Oracle Park. That said, Oracle Park is one of the tougher environments for left-handed hitters, so it is fair to expect some struggles at home. One thing is for certain is that Bellinger would not have the benefit of playing half his games at Yankee Stadium if he signed with the Giants.
2. Lack of raw power
This has been a knock on Bellinger for several seasons. He hits for power, but he has below-average raw power. Bellinger’s swing is designed to lift and pull the ball with regularity, so he will tally a lot of extra-base hits.
How will that play as he ages? In his age-29 season, the lefty bat generated a 70.1 MPH average bat speed and a 88.3 MPH average exit velocity, which were in the 20th and 24th percentile, respectively. Perhaps these numbers will not scare a team away, but it will be factored into how they project he will age throughout the duration of his next contract.
In addition to this, Bellinger outfperformed his expected numbers across the board in 2025. For example, he posted a .480 slugging percentage, compared to a .416 expected slugging percentage. That favorable difference does not seem sustainable.
3. Expected contract
MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Bellinger will land a five-year, $140 million deal this winter. That comes out to an average annual value of $28 million. That is a lot of money to invest in a player with the type of red flags that his profile demonstrates.
Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras, so there is a good chance that he sees a substantial payday in free agency. That said, this will be his third trip through free agency, and second since fulfilling his rookie contract. He did not garner quite the attention that a former MVP typically merits in free agency.
That led to a creative, two-year deal with a player option for a third season. Of course, Bellinger played well in 2025 and declined that player option in favor of free agency. If the Giants could sign the nine-year veteran to a three-year deal with an option for a fourth year, that could make sense for both sides. Anything above that feels too steep.
