For the second offseason in a row, we are looking at the possibility of a Nolan Arenado trade. This year feels different.

The St. Louis Cardinals have a new president of baseball operations. From what we are seeing, there is no more half-in and half-out policy. If a trade helps the team, they will make it.

Second is the fact that no one expects the Cardinals to contend this year for the World Series title. Despite his incredible individual accolades — including 10 Gold Glove Awards, six Platinum Glove Awards, and eight All-Star selections — Nolan Arenado has never been in a World Series, and indications are he would love to add that to his resume.

If Arenado were to waive his no-trade clause for a chance to get a ring, then that is only half of the equation. The other is looking to see which contender would be a fit.

It is a given that the Cardinals are looking for younger, high-ceiling prospects or major league-ready pitching. There is also the probability that the Cardinals will need to absorb some of Arenado’s salary.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Need: Currently, the Dodgers have Max Muncy at third base. Nolan Arenado would certainly be an upgrade at the position, and Muncy has shown his ability to play elsewhere.

Trade: The Dodgers have seven of the top 100 prospects.

Fit: Best of all outcomes for both sides. This makes the most sense of any team. The Dodgers obviously can afford to take on more of the salary. The only downside is that none of the minor league prospects are pitchers. If the Cardinals offer more money and/or add a player to the mix, they could get one of the Dodgers’ major league-ready pitchers in return. Arenado is from California, so I’m sure he wouldn’t object.

New York Yankees

Need: Third base for the Yankees is a mess. They had DJ LeMahieu last year, and he was DFA’ed. They traded for Ryan McMahon, who hit only .166 against left-handed pitching, and then there is also Oswald Peraza, who hit .164 last year. Arenado would definitely fill a need.

Trade: The Yankees have four top 100 prospects, and two of them are pitchers. It would also be nice if the Cardinals could make a bigger deal work that would get Spencer Jones.

Fit: Excellent. This would be intriguing to the Yankees. Arenado has a batting average of .366 at Yankee Stadium and an OPS of 1.129. The Cardinals would covet some of their young pitching.

Philadelphia Phillies

Need: None. Right now, Alec Bohm is at third. He was an all-star in 2024 and hit .287  last year. There have been rumors that they might trade Bohm, but until they do, it probably will not work.

Trade: They have three top 100 prospects. Andrew Painter would take more to get, Aidan Miller is a shortstop the Cardinals don’t need, and Justin Crawford is an outfielder.

Fit: Low. Doesn’t seem to be a fit for either team.

New York Mets:

Need: The Mets have options. They have Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, who will compete for the spot. Both are low-cost options, both show promise, and both had their issues last year. Arenado, based on a pure baseball move, would be better than both. If they make more trades or pick up more high-priced free agents, this might be the one spot they try to save money. The way they spend, however, one just never knows with the Mets.

Trade: The Mets have four of the top 100 free agents, and two are pitchers.

Fit: Medium to unknown — It’s the Mets, so who really knows?

Seattle Mariners

Need: The Mariners have a hole at third base unless they believe Colt Emerson is ready. By trading one of their best prospects in Harry Ford to strengthen the bullpen, they have shown they are in a win-now mode. Arenado fits.

Trade: Seattle had seven top 100 prospects and one of the strongest farm systems in baseball.

Fit: Excellent. The Mariners get a player that puts them over the top, and they have plenty of prospects for the Cardinals to choose from.

Houston Astros

Need: None. Carlos Correa has third base locked up.

Trade: They have one player, a second baseman, in the top 100.

Fit: NONE – Doesn’t make sense for either team.

Summary:

Even though it is a good thing that Arenado is willing to open up his list of teams to go to, it isn’t as news-breaking as it may seem. It was reported that the teams he was always willing to go to were the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets.

So the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies and Mets were already on his list if we can believe the reports. For contenders, this only adds the Mariners and the Astros.

The Astros don’t seem to be a great fit, so really, by making that statement it appears he has expanded his list to only one more, the Seattle Mariners, but that just might be the right trade to make.

This could be a very interesting offseason for the Cardinals.