Chiefs vs. Titans Preview — Week 16 NFL Matchup (December 22, 2025)

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN — Monday Night Football brings an intriguing AFC battle as the Kansas City Chiefs (6–8) travel to face the Tennessee Titans (2–11) in Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season.

Teams Entering the Game

Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off a tough stretch in which they were officially eliminated from playoff contention following a narrow 16–13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. In that game, star quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a season‑ending torn ACL, leaving Kansas City without its two‑time MVP for the remainder of 2025.

Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew is expected to start under center, giving the Chiefs a new dynamic but also adding uncertainty to their offensive rhythm. Kansas City’s offense ranks significantly higher than Tennessee’s this season, averaging over 24 points per game compared to just under 16 for the Titans.

Tennessee Titans
The Titans have struggled mightily all season and sit with just two wins. Tennessee’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league in total yards and scoring, and their defense has faced challenges containing both run and pass attacks.

Despite their overall struggles, the Titans have shown flashes of competitiveness — particularly in recent matchups where they have kept games close against favored opponents.

Matchup Outlook & Key Storylines

With Mahomes sidelined, Kansas City’s offense must adjust with Minshew at the helm. While Minshew brings experience and poise, he does not possess the same elite playmaking ability as Mahomes, which could open the door for Tennessee to keep the game closer than expected.

Tennessee will likely rely on a balanced attack and ball control to try to keep the clock moving and limit opportunities for the Chiefs. Running back Derrick Henry, if healthy for this matchup, will be a key focal point of the Titans’ offense.

Expert Predictions & Odds

• Statistical models project a strong advantage for the Chiefs, giving them around an 86% chance to win this matchup. Chiefs victory predictions often center on their superior offensive rankings and historical dominance in this series.

• Betting odds reflect this expectation, with Kansas City favored by double digits (around -10.5 to -11.5) and an over/under near 41–44 points.

• Many predictive models suggest a final score in the vicinity of Chiefs 25, Titans 15 — a modest margin that accounts for Kansas City’s offensive transition post‑Mahomes.

What Experts Are Watching

 Chiefs’ Offensive Adjustment: How Minshew manages Kansas City’s playbook and whether the team leans more on the running game and short passes to compensate for Mahomes’ absence.
 Titans’ Defense vs. Chiefs’ Attack: Tennessee’s ability to pressure Minshew early and force turnovers will be critical if they hope to steal an upset.
 Game Tempo & Turnovers: Winning the turnover battle and limiting explosive plays could keep this game competitive, especially if the Titans find their rhythm on offense.

Final Thought

Although the Titans have shown grit at times this year, the substantial gap in offensive efficiency and overall team talent — even without Mahomes — still gives the Chiefs the edge heading into Nissan Stadium. With strong expert projections favoring Kansas City, fans should expect a Chiefs win, but one that could be tighter if Tennessee can exploit the Chiefs’ adjusted lineup on both sides of the ball.