SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Kyle Shanahan would have preferred an earlier bye.
In Week 6, for example, the team was missing Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Ben Bartch and Spencer Burford on offense, and Nick Bosa on defense. A week off would have at least allowed the staggering San Francisco 49ers to take a breath and collect themselves when they were most vulnerable.
However, the team survived that test, and now that the bye is here, it has an opportunity to take advantage of a rare December pause.
“I think we are getting healthier now, but I do think our guys need some rest just mentally, probably even more than physically,” Shanahan said last week. “They know after this (Cleveland Browns) game, regardless of what happens, they’re going to get about five days off, and it’s something the guys deserve. Hopefully that helps us mentally and physically and we can come back and make a run at this.”
When the 49ers reassemble next week, there will be plenty at stake — everything from draft order to NFL records to the ultimate team goal, the playoffs.
The 49ers will have four games, three at home, that will determine whether they make the postseason, where they’ll travel if they do make the playoffs, or, if everything goes really well, whether they’ll have to travel at all.
The road to the playoffs
According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the 49ers have an excellent shot — 91 percent — of making the playoffs and even have a slight chance — 10 percent — of becoming the NFC’s No. 1 seed and earning a first-round bye. The odds of that, of course, increase with every win. If the 49ers sweep the final four, for example, their chance of being the top seed jumps to 65 percent. This would mean that, following their Week 16 trip to Indianapolis, the 49ers never would have to leave Levi’s Stadium, the site of the upcoming Super Bowl.
Lose the final four? Their chances of making the postseason, even as a wild card, drop to eight percent. Check out the playoff simulator — it’s fun to play around with.
McCaffrey’s milestones
Christian McCaffrey not only leads the 49ers in rushing and receiving yards, but he’s the league leader in yards from scrimmage. The gap in that category, however, has begun to narrow. He’s 66 yards ahead of Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson and 69 yards ahead of Indianapolis Colts rusher Jonathan Taylor, and the pair have played one fewer game than McCaffrey. Who will be this year’s NFL Offensive Player of the Year? Three of the last five yards-from-scrimmage leaders have won that award, including McCaffrey in 2023.
His bigger milestone, however, would be becoming the first player in NFL history to have two seasons with 1,000 rushing yards as well as 1,000 receiving yards, something he did in 2019 with the Carolina Panthers. He’s been on pace for that since the first month of the season, although his receiving totals — gaudy in the first half of the season – have begun to dip as more 49ers pass catchers have returned from injury and the running game has become more productive. McCaffrey must average 48.5 receiving yards and 38 rushing yards in the four remaining games to reach 1,000 yards in each category.
A dubious defensive honor
The 49ers’ sack explosion — three whole sacks! — Sunday in Cleveland tied their season high, but the team remains in last place in that category with 16 despite having played one more game than 28 teams. Their lowest season total in a non-strike season since sacks became an official stat is 28, which they had in 2005 and 2015. That means they’d have to average three a game from here on out to match their franchise low.
The 49ers’ best shot at padding their total will be their post-bye game against the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed a league-high 48 sacks so far. The other three opponents on the schedule — the Chicago Bears, Colts and Seattle Seahawks — do a good job protecting the quarterback and rank in the top 10 in fewest sacks allowed.
Huff in an interesting spot
Bryce Huff is tied with fellow defensive end Clelin Ferrell for the team sack lead with four, which is an interesting number with four games to play. If Huff reaches eight sacks, the fifth-round pick the 49ers sent to Philadelphia in the trade for Huff becomes a fourth-round pick.
The 49ers should root for him to hit that mark, and not only because it would benefit the defense. As it stands now, the 49ers have no fifth-round picks, which has been their magic round since Shanahan and John Lynch arrived in 2017.
Picks in that round have included Kittle, D.J. Reed, Dre Greenlaw, Colton McKivitz, Deommodore Lenoir and Talanoa Hufanga. The most noteworthy fourth-rounders of the Shanahan-Lynch era? Malik Mustapha in 2024. End of list.
Bourne still waiting on 500
As far as individual achievements, receiver Kendrick Bourne stands to make an additional $500,000 if he hits 500 receiving yards this season. That bonus seemed inevitable after the Nov. 9 game against the Los Angeles Rams when he pushed his total to 482 yards. The problem — he remains at 482 yards a month later. Pearsall’s return has squashed Bourne’s snap count, and he has only one target and no catches in the last three games. He would earn an additional $750,000 if he reaches 600 yards.
Iron man streak in jeopardy
The 49ers roster has been crushed by injuries this season, but they still have a surprising number of players — eight — who have started every game so far. The player most in jeopardy of having his start streak snapped coming out of the bye is Kyle Juszczyk, who is dealing with cracked ribs. The 34-year-old fullback has missed one game in the last six seasons. Shanahan said Juszczyk would be reevaluated coming out of the bye.
