The Houston Astros have been riding the highs of contention for nearly a decade, but that kind of sustained success comes at a cost – and we’re seeing the bill come due. Between aggressive win-now trades and the lingering fallout from the sign-stealing scandal, the once-promising pipeline of young talent has thinned out. The big-league roster has holes, the budget is tight, and the farm system hasn’t exactly been brimming with reinforcements.

But there’s a glimmer of hope – and his name is Ethan Frey.

Baseball America recently tabbed Frey as the Astros prospect most likely to break out, and if that prediction holds true, it could be a major turning point for a system that badly needs a jolt. Frey might not have had the same draft-day buzz as first-rounder Xavier Neyens, but he’s quickly making a name for himself with both production and polish.

Let’s start with the profile. Frey is a physical specimen – six-foot-six, 225 pounds – and now that he’s healthy, that size is translating into real results.

After battling injuries during his first two seasons at LSU, Frey finally got the chance to show why he was such a highly regarded high school prospect. He made the most of it, slashing .331/.420/.641 with 13 home runs in just 212 plate appearances.

That’s not just a bounce-back – that’s a statement.

Once he entered the pro ranks, Frey landed in Single-A Fayetteville, and the production didn’t slow down. In 26 games, he hit .330 with a .434 on-base percentage and three home runs. But the real story isn’t just the numbers – it’s how he got there.

Frey didn’t just hold his own against better pitching – he got better. His walk rate ticked up, his strikeout rate dropped, and he showed the kind of plate discipline that suggests this isn’t a flash in the pan.

For context: at LSU, he walked in 13.7% of his plate appearances while striking out 22.2% of the time. In Fayetteville, those numbers improved to 16.4% walks and just 20.5% strikeouts.

That’s not just growth – that’s a sign of a hitter who understands the zone and is adjusting on the fly.

Dig a little deeper, and the data backs it up. Frey had a swing rate of just 37.6% – meaning he wasn’t chasing – but still managed to make contact 83.4% of the time.

His swinging strike rate? A minuscule 6.2%.

That kind of strike zone recognition and bat-to-ball skill is rare, especially for a player of his size.

And that’s where Frey really separates himself. Big hitters often come with big strikeout concerns, thanks to longer levers and bigger swings.

But Frey’s swing is short, compact, and efficient. He doesn’t need to cheat for power – he’s strong enough to drive the ball to all fields without selling out.

In fact, his batted-ball profile in A-ball was almost perfectly balanced between pull, center, and opposite field. That’s a mature approach, and it’s the kind of thing that plays at higher levels.

There’s more, too. Frey isn’t just a bat-first prospect.

He’s shown surprising athleticism for his frame, swiping nine bags in just 26 games and flashing the kind of range and arm strength that could keep him in center or right field long-term. That positional versatility, paired with his offensive upside, makes him one of the most intriguing prospects in the system.

And let’s not overlook the age factor. Frey turns 22 in March, which puts him on the older side for Single-A competition – but in a good way. He’s mature, physically and mentally, and that could help him move quickly through the ranks in 2026.

It’s still early, of course. Prospects are never a sure thing.

But Ethan Frey is checking a lot of boxes – power, plate discipline, contact skills, athleticism, and maturity. For a Houston organization that’s been searching for the next wave of homegrown talent, he might just be the breakout they’ve been waiting for.

And if he keeps this up, the Astros’ farm system might not be barren for much longer.