After missing the last two full regular seasons, Andrew Painter has turned some heads in his return to the mound this fall. He’s on track to make his major-league debut in 2025 and — according to one notable prospect evaluator — could make a run at the National League Rookie of the Year Award.

Painter, the tantalizing former first-round pick who may have cracked the Phillies’ rotation as a teenager in early 2023 if not for an elbow injury and Tommy John surgery, was named a Rookie of the Year contender by MLB Pipeline‘s Jim Callis in the outlet’s latest edition of its annual ranking of candidates for the award. Callis named Painter his third NL Rookie of the Year candidate as he and Jonathan Mayo revealed their lists on the MLB Pipeline Podcast.

Returning to action from injury in the Arizona Fall League, Painter, 21, was electric, displaying the ace-level upside that makes him a top prospect and a Rookie of the Year contender. The right-hander had a 2.30 ERA in six starts for Glendale, striking out 18 batters in 15 2/3 innings. He walked only four and allowed one home run.

Painter is one of the best pitching prospects the Phillies have had in recent memory, a true potential top-of-the-rotation contributor — the kind of prospect the Phillies haven’t had often. Outside of Aaron Nola and Cole Hamels, the club has not found much starting pitching talent in the draft. Painter, with the proper development, could buck that trend in a significant way.

Painter had been rising quickly after being selected with the No. 13 pick in the 2021 draft, moving up to Double-A in a 2022 season that saw him post a 1.56 ERA between three levels. He had a chance to break camp with Philadelphia in 2023 before the injury that set him back for the past two seasons. However, Painter remains quite young with the opportunity to make a difference in the big leagues next year.

He’ll surely be on some sort of innings limit in 2025, which Callis noted as a reason for listing him at only third. (Both Callis and Mayo had Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews as the top candidate for NL Rookie of the Year; Orioles infield prospect Coby Mayo was their unanimous top candidate for American League Rookie of the Year.) Still, Painter will have the chance to bring some youth and firepower to a Phillies starting pitching staff that is already one of the best in the majors.

The expectation is that he’ll make an impact as soon as he joins the team.