The Red Sox have already been linked to a wide range of big-name free agents this winter, including most of the top available pitchers.  It comes as no surprise that Corbin Burnes also appears to be on Boston’s radar, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are “in on” Burnes.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said earlier this month at the GM Meetings that the Red Sox “need to raise the ceiling of the rotation” by adding a front-of-the-rotation No. 1 starter type.  Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello project as the top three members of Boston’s current pitching staff, Lucas Giolito is expected to be back from an internal brace surgery relatively close to the start of the season, and the likes of Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, or Quinn Priester are the top candidates for the fifth’s starter role.

Adding a pitcher like Burnes naturally makes that group much stronger, as suddenly the Red Sox would have an ace to push everyone down one slot in the rotation, and the younger starters become key depth options if Giolito has any setbacks (or if any of the starters run into injury problems).  In theory, the Sox could even look to turn one of the younger starters into a trade chip, even if it’s probably likelier that Boston just retains all of its pitchers just for the sake of having as much depth as possible.

The Red Sox to have interest in Garrett Crochet’s market, so it is possible the Sox will address their rotation needs via trade rather than via free agency.  Boston’s relatively limited free agent spending in recent years has been well-documented, as Trevor Story’s six-year, $140MM contract is the only nine-figure free agent deal the Red Sox have finalized in the last six offseasons.  That said, the Sox have explored so many premium free agents this winter that it appears the team is again willing to shop on the top shelf of the market — four non-winning records in the last five seasons has undoubtedly spurred some extra aggressiveness.

Burnes is ranked behind only Juan Soto on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents in this year’s class, and the right-hander is projected for a seven-year, $200MM pact.  Just a month removed from his 30th birthday, Burnes hits the open market on the heels of four straight All-Star appearances, and five straight top-eight finishes in the NL and AL Cy Young races.  Burnes took the Cy home in 2021 when he posted a Major League-leading 2.43 ERA in 167 innings with the Brewers.

That innings total was actually the lowest of Burnes’ last four seasons, as he has averaged 197 frames over the 2022-24 seasons.  Beyond the durability, Burnes has a 3.08 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate over the last three seasons, as he remained productive in a new environment after the Brewers traded him to the Orioles last offseason.  Burnes’ 23.1% strikeout rate this season was only a tick above league average, but the rest of his Statcast metrics were impressive, and he added a 48.2% grounder rate to boot.

Because Burnes rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer, any team that signs him would have to face some type of penalty.  In Boston’s case, they would have to surrender $500K in international signing pool money, as well as their second-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  This might be a relatively acceptable loss for the Red Sox, especially since they’d be getting a compensatory pick of their own just before the start of the third round if Nick Pivetta (their own qualified free agent) signed elsewhere.