Early reports of the Dodgers’ investment in Kyle Tucker’s market seem to have been a little over-exaggerated. LA was initially reported as being the “overwhelming favorites” to land Tucker, which made sense; Tucker is the top free agent on the market, the Dodgers need a new outfielder, and they would be able to afford him.

However, the temperature has cooled significantly, and very quickly. Bob Nightengale reported that the Dodgers will “keep teams honest” but aren’t likely to be the highest bidders. Jeff Passan had more intel in the same vein, writing that “sources said their interest is more likely to be on a high-dollar, shorter-term deal.”

The Dodgers tried something similar with Bryce Harper in 2019, reportedly offering him a four-year, $180 million deal when he lingered on the free agent market into early March. He turned it down to take a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phillies. At the time, Harper was a year younger than Tucker is now, but it was impossible for him to pass up the security of a 13-year deal.

There’s basically no way that Tucker doesn’t get a long-term contract offer — maybe not quite as long as Harper’s, but a decade is certainly not out of the question — so the Dodgers’ attempts to sign him could be DOA.

Dodgers have no chance at signing Kyle Tucker if they stick to short-term, high-dollar strategy

There’s always a chance that Tucker’s free agency turns into a Boras Four situation — when Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and Jordan Montgomery lingered on the 2023-2024 free agent market well past the start of spring training while Scott Boras tried to play chicken with teams, then all ended up having to take deals with just one guaranteed year — but Tucker isn’t represented by Boras, and he has far more leverage than any of those four.

The Yankees, Mets, and Blue Jays are all expected to be in the pursuit. They all have the money and the desperation that could lead them to give Tucker the 10 or even 11 years he wants.

The Dodgers have other options. They’re expected to revisit Steven Kwan talks with the Guardians and are reportedly interested in Cody Bellinger again. Ryan Ward and Dalton Rushing are two internal options.

Tucker is more of a luxury than a must-have. There’s still a non-zero chance he ends up in LA, but chances are looking slimmer if the latest reports are true.