Framber Valdez Declines Qualifying Offer, Leaves Astros Searching for Answers in the Rotation
The writing was on the wall, and now it’s official: Framber Valdez is heading to free agency. The left-hander declined the Astros’ qualifying offer on Tuesday, setting himself up for a big payday this offseason-and leaving Houston with a hole in the top of its rotation.
The Astros had done the expected, tagging Valdez with a qualifying offer as soon as the offseason opened. Now that he’s turned it down, Houston will at least walk away with a compensatory draft pick.
Because they’re over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, that pick will come after the fourth round of the 2026 MLB Draft. It’s a nice asset for a farm system that could use the help, but it won’t do much to ease the sting of losing one of their most reliable arms.
Make no mistake-Valdez didn’t have a perfect season. He hit some bumps late in the year.
But even with those struggles, he’s still expected to be one of the most sought-after starters on the market. A durable, left-handed pitcher with postseason experience doesn’t come cheap, and most projections have Valdez commanding a contract north of $150 million.
That’s the kind of deal that likely prices Houston out of the running, at least without some major payroll maneuvering.
Astros Face Tough Decisions in a Crowded Market
Could the Astros still make a push to bring Valdez back? Technically, yes.
But with a roster already carrying several expensive contracts, it would take some serious financial gymnastics to make it happen. And with other top-tier arms like Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Ranger Suárez expected to draw big interest, Houston may have to pivot quickly-or risk missing out altogether.
If free agency proves too costly, the trade market could offer a lifeline. Names like Joe Ryan (Twins), MacKenzie Gore (Nationals), and Mitch Keller (Pirates) are expected to be available, and all three could slot into the top of a rotation. But those arms won’t come cheap either, especially with multiple teams in need of starting pitching.
That leaves Houston with a few paths forward, none of them perfect. They could roll the dice and promote from within-but that’s a gamble with more downside than upside.
Right now, Hunter Brown stands as the clear No. 1 heading into 2026, but behind him, the picture gets murky. Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti, and Christian Javier all have potential, but they also come with question marks.
Whether it’s inconsistency, command issues, or durability concerns, none of them scream frontline starter at this point.
A Draft Pick Doesn’t Win Games in April
The extra draft pick Houston gets for losing Valdez is a long-term play. It might pay off down the road, but it won’t help them win games in April-or keep pace in a division that’s only getting tougher. For a team that’s been a perennial contender, the pressure is on to find answers fast.
Valdez’s decision to decline the qualifying offer wasn’t a surprise. It was the logical move for a pitcher entering his prime with a strong track record and a market ready to pay.
But for Houston, it marks the beginning of a pivotal offseason. The Astros now face the challenge of replacing a key piece of their rotation without the financial flexibility they’ve had in years past.
The front office has some big decisions ahead. Whether it’s swinging a trade, making a splash in free agency, or threading the needle with internal development, the Astros can’t afford to stand still. Because as it stands now, the rotation that once anchored a championship run is suddenly looking thin-and the clock is ticking.
