The Green Bay Packers wasted a golden opportunity to put some space between themselves and the rest of the pack in the NFC North last week as they dropped a 16-13 decision to the Carolina Panthers at Lambeau Field. As a result, Green Bay’s lead over the Detroit Lions, who suffered a 27-24 home loss to the division-rival Minnesota Vikings, remained at one-half game, while the Chicago Bears drew within that distance with their wild 47-42 triumph over the Cincinnati Bengals.
The loss was the first since Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season for the Packers, who fell to 5-2-1. With Detroit and Chicago both facing struggling teams in Week 10, Green Bay will be trying its best for a victory when it hosts the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
The Lions visit the Washington Commanders, who have lost four consecutive contests and will be without quarterback Jayden Daniels due to a dislocated elbow. Meanwhile, Chicago hosts a New York Giants squad that is in the midst of a three-game losing streak and is 0-5 on the road this season.
Since losses by Detroit and Chicago aren’t very likely, Green Bay figures to need a victory against Philadelphia to maintain its slim division lead. That won’t be an easy feat, however, as the Eagles (6-2) are coming off back-to-back wins and own a 3.5-game lead over the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.
It will be even more difficult since the Packers lost more than a game in Week 9. Tight end Tucker Kraft, who leads the team with 489 receiving yards and six touchdown catches, suffered a torn ACL against Carolina and is done for the season.
In addition, Green Bay has lost three straight and four of its last five meetings with Philadelphia, including a 22-10 setback in the wild card round last postseason.
SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team doesn’t believe a loss by the Eagles will do much harm at all to their hopes for a division title or playoff berth. But according to its projection model, the Packers’ chances for both will decrease significantly should they endure their second straight setback at home.
Green Bay’s current postseason prospects improve by 7% with a win on Monday night. But the model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, says its chances drop by over 10% with a loss, making the difference between victory and defeat more than 17%.
| CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | ||||
| TEAM | CURRENT | WITH WEEK 10 WIN | WITH WEEK 10 LOSS | DIFFERENCE |
| Green Bay Packers | 78.5% | 85.5% | 68.3% | 17.2% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 95.6% | 98.4% | 93.3% | 5.1% |
Winning a third NFC East title in four years is almost a certainty for the Eagles right now, and a loss to the Packers wouldn’t do much to change that. The model currently says Philadelphia repeats as division champion in 94.5% of its simulations and would do so 92% of the time if it’s defeated.
According to the model, Green Bay currently wins the NFC North in more than 44% of its simulations, and its chances improve by over 8% with a victory on Monday night. However, the Packers’ outlook for the division crown drops to less than 33% with a loss.
| CHANCES OF WINNING NFC EAST | ||||
| TEAM | CURRENT | WITH WEEK 10 WIN | WITH WEEK 10 LOSS | DIFFERENCE |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 94.5% | 97.5% | 92.0% | 5.5% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.3% | BYE | BYE | N/A |
| Washington Commanders | 2.2% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 3.1% |
| New York Giants | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CHANCES OF WINNING NFC NORTH | ||||
| TEAM | CURRENT | WITH WEEK 10 WIN | WITH WEEK 10 LOSS | DIFFERENCE |
| Green Bay Packers | 44.2% | 52.4% | 32.6% | 19.8% |
| Detroit Lions | 39.4% | 45.0% | 26.5% | 18.5% |
| Chicago Bears | 10.5% | 12.6% | 4.9% | 7.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 6.5% |
Jordan Love is 0-2 against Philadelphia as Green Bay’s starting quarterback, with both losses coming last season. The 27-year-old, who threw a touchdown pass versus the Eagles in relief of Aaron Rodgers in 2022, tossed a pair of TD tosses in the Packers’ 34-29 loss in Brazil in the 2024 opener and was intercepted three times without throwing for a score in the wild card matchup. Josh Jacobs ran for 81 yards and a touchdown in that contest, while wide receiver Christian Watson hauled in a TD pass in each of Green Bay’s last two regular-season meetings with Philadelphia.
Jalen Hurts has thrown a pair of touchdown passes in each of his three career starts — all wins — against the Packers and also gained 157 yards on the ground in the Eagles’ 40-33 triumph in 2022. Saquon Barkley, who had three TD runs in three games against Green Bay while a member of the New York Giants, rushed for 109 yards and two scores while also making a touchdown catch versus the Packers in the 2024 season opener and gained 119 yards on the ground in the playoff showdown.
Eagles wideout A.J. Brown and tight end Dallas Goedert each have two career touchdown receptions against Green Bay, with the former registering one — along with 119 receiving yards — in last year’s regular-season meeting and the latter notching one in the wild card game. The Packers are 2.5-point favorites against Philadelphia in the latest consensus odds, but the ITL team’s model is projecting a 23-21 victory for Green Bay.
