GREEN BAY, Wis. – Because the NFC is loaded, there is a very small margin for error, no matter how good the team.

The Green Bay Packers were in first place in the NFC playoff race last week but with only one more win than the teams in eighth and ninth place. Now, following Sunday’s stunning home loss to the Carolina Panthers, the Packers have fallen to fourth place. With the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles coming to town for a Monday night showdown, Green Bay’s spot in the playoff race is precarious.

Here are the latest NFC playoff standings through Week 9.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (first place, NFC East): 6-2

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (first place, NFC South): 6-2

3. Seattle Seahawks (first place, NFC West): 6-2

4. Green Bay Packers (first place, NFC North): 5-2-1

5. Los Angeles Rams (second place, NFC West): 6-2

6. San Francisco 49ers (third place, NFC West): 6-3

7. Detroit Lions (second place, NFC North): 5-3

– – –

8. Chicago Bears (third place, NFC North): 5-3

9. Carolina Panthers (second place, NFC South): 5-4

10. Minnesota Vikings (fourth place, NFC North): 4-4

11. Dallas Cowboys (third place, NFC East): 3-5-1

12. Arizona Cardinals (fourth place, NFC West): 3-5

13. Atlanta Falcons (third place, NFC South): 3-5

14. Washington Commanders (third place, NFC East): 3-6

15. New York Giants (fourth place, NFC East): 2-7

16. New Orleans Saints (fourth place, NFC South): 1-8

A Must-Win for Packers? No, But It’s Huge

Just look at the standings and focus on the NFC North. The Packers lead at 5-2-1, but the Lions are 5-3, the Bears are 5-3 and the Vikings are 4-4. The North is the only team in which no team has a losing record.

This week, the Lions will visit the Commanders, who will be starting a backup quarterback and have lost four in a row. The Bears, who have won five of their last six, will host the slumping Giants, who have lost three in a row. The Vikings, coming off a big win at Detroit, will host the Ravens, who are 3-5 but have won two in a row.

Saquon Barkley and the Eagles beat the Packers twice last season, including a playoff game in Philadelphia. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

If the Packers were to lose to the Eagles, who are the new NFC front-runner, it’s pretty easy to imagine them falling into third place in the NFC standings. That could send them all the way out of the NFC playoff bracket, depending on the outcome of the Rams-49ers game. Moreover, Carolina, which has won four consecutive games started by Bryce Young, would be only a half-game behind.

So, it’s critical the Packers take advantage of their bonus day and make the necessary corrections to give them a shot against the Eagles, who are coming off their bye.

“That’s life in this league, right?” coach Matt LaFleur said. “You’re going to face some adversity. Not everything’s going to go your way. Certainly, we’re disappointed, absolutely, but we’re going to take a look at it, we’re going to own it and we’re going to learn from it and we’re going to move on.

“That’s what you have to do because the reality is we’re 5-2-1 with (nine) games remaining and everything right out in front of us. So that’s the mindset, that’s the approach and that’s what we’re going to do.”

This year, teams coming out of their bye are 10-4. Last year, they were 15-17 – a dumbfounding figure and an outlier. They were 20-12 in 2022 and 2023.

Based on that history and the power of the Eagles, the Packers must bounce back quickly.

On the other hand, while a loss could push Green Bay onto the wrong side of the playoff bubble and make earning the No. 1 seed an enormous challenge, a statement win would reassert the Packers as a championship contender and keep them right in the mix for homefield.

“It’s very frustrating,” quarterback Jordan Love said after the game. “I think everybody in that locker room is very frustrated. It’s tough, but I think what we’re walking out of that locker room feeling is if we don’t play our best, we’re going to get beat just like that, no matter who it is.

“So, we’ve got to find ways to be at our best, be more consistent, put up more points than this. This is what happens if you don’t play your best week in and week out.”

According to Tankathon, the Packers have the third-toughest remaining strength of schedule, with their nine remaining opponents having a combined .554 winning percentage. Only the Cardinals (.595) and Rams (.581) will face a tougher remaining slate of games.

Green Bay’s strength of schedule from its first eight games is just .434. That’s the lowest of the top seven teams in the NFC standings.

The Packers have only two more games scheduled against teams with losing records. One is a road game next week against the Giants. The other is against the surging Ravens at Lambeau.

Packers Playoff Chances

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Packers have an 80.9 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and a 50.8 percent chance of winning the division. That’s down rather sharply from last week, when FPI had the Packers with a 93.5 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason and a 57.6 percent chance of winning the division.

According to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, which debuted this week, the Packers have an 87 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, including 45 percent to win the division and 12 percent to earn the No. 1 seed. A win this week would push the playoff chances to 93 percent while a loss would send it to 81 percent.

According to Playoff Status, Green Bay’s playoff chances went from 85 percent to 66 percent because of its loss to Carolina.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers were an overwhelming -2000 to reach the playoffs. By implied probability, that meant a 95.2 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. By losing to Carolina, and losing tight end Tucker Kraft, that fell all the way to -480. That’s fifth in the NFC and 10th overall but a still-solid 82.8 percent.

Following a week of upsets, the Bills have the shortest odds to reach the playoffs at -6000. In the NFC, the Eagles are -4500 (from -1050), the Buccaneers are -1050, the Seahawks are -900 and the Rams are -700. After Green Bay, the Lions are -430 (from -900 after losing to the Vikings) and the Bears are +194.

The Packers are 2.5-point favorites against the Eagles at FanDuel. They were 3-point favorites before losing to Carolina, so that result has mostly been met with a shrug of the shoulders. Bettors, however, are overwhelmingly siding with the Eagles. As of Tuesday evening, 77 percent of the money and 85 percent of the bets are on the Eagles.

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