Chiefs vs. Bills: Three must-know storylines for Sunday’s Week 9 matchup

WHERE: Highmark Stadium
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET
HOW TO WATCH: CBS, NFL+

Fans have been graced with this matchup several times over the years, and whether you are a Bills fan, Chiefs fan or neither, you know this matchup delivers. This will be Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes’ 10th matchup against each other since 2020 and is unofficially coined the potential AFC Championship preview game. For more on their matchup history, check out a deep-dive from NFL Research’s Anthony Holzman-Escareno. Now, let’s talk about where they are today.

Tune in to watch the Chiefs take on the Bills at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday on CBS or NFL+ in local markets. Sign up for NFL+ for access to games all season long, NFL Network, and more.

Three must-know storylines

1) Chiefs’ offense is hot

Despite an 0-2 start, the Chiefs have worked their way to a 5-3 record, largely without the help of their top wide receiver. Now, they enter arguably their biggest regular-season matchup with a full arsenal of weapons at their disposal. Rashee Rice returned from his suspension in Week 7 and has been a difference-maker since (3 TDs, 135 yds.), while Travis Kelce has the second-most receiving yards by a tight end and Mahomes has been the best QB in the NFL since Week 4 (14 TDs, 1,430 yds.). The only piece missing is their running game, which doesn’t stand to improve this week with Isiah Pacheco sidelined with a knee injury. However, it does open the door for rookie running back Brashard Smith to get an increased snap count and potentially exploit a struggling Bills run defense.

2) Can the Bills’ defense step up to the challenge?

Since 2020, no team in the NFL has given up more rushing yards and rushing touchdowns to Mahomes than the Buffalo Bills – his ability to make plays with his feet is Buffalo’s Achilles heel. This is especially worrisome for a Bills run defense who is currently averaging 150.3 rushing yards against them per game this year, which ranks 31st. Add in the fact that they just lost a key player in DT Ed Oliver, and the picture only gets worse. However, where they falter in the run game, they make up for in the secondary. This Bills unit ranks second in pass yards per game allowed (161.9), second in passing touchdowns allowed (7), fifth in EPA per pass allowed (-0.16), and second in yards after catch over expected allowed (-22). To prevail here, this squad will need to keep Mahomes’ feet in the pocket and force him to throw into tight coverage.

3) Will the reigning MVP continue his regular-season dominance versus the Chiefs?

Allen hasn’t lost to the Chiefs in the regular season since his first game against them in 2020. Still though, four out of five of NFL.com’s analysts selected the Chiefs as the winner of this week’s tilt. Despite the Bills’ 5-2 record, their WR room needs help. Their top target is Khalil Shakir, who ranks 44th among pass catchers in yards per game; their No. 2 target, Dalton Kincaid, ranks 58th in that category. Their north star this year has been their running game; James Cook anchors the attack and leads the league in rush yards over expected (+225), while Allen has complemented his running mate with five rushing touchdowns entering Sunday. Buffalo’s offense will need to lean heavily into this advantage to keep their streak alive.

The Bills have many of the required tools to win this game – the clutch gene being one of them – but they face a tall task: the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that has a top-five offense and defense. They’ve got their work cut out for them at home.