After a stellar 2023 season in which Bellinger posted an OPS 39% above league average, the former MVP opted to stay with the Cubs rather than test free agency. By doing so, he secured $32.5 million in guaranteed money, which includes a $27.5 million salary for 2025 and a $5 million buyout if he chooses not to opt into the 2026 season for another $27.5 million.

While executives often say there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal, Bellinger’s contract isn’t necessarily a straightforward short-term commitment. Teams interested in trading for him must consider the financial implications and the potential for him to opt into 2026.

Bellinger’s 2023 performance set high expectations, but his 2024 season declined. Although he was still 11% above league average in OPS, his offensive production wasn’t as impactful. This dip in performance likely played a role in his decision to stay with the Cubs rather than risk a weaker free-agent market.

The Cubs will have to hold on to Bellinger unless they find a suitor to eat his contract

The Cubs face a unique challenge in assessing Bellinger’s trade value. He could command significant interest at his best, but the combination of his $32.5 million price tag and his less-dominant 2024 season mitigates the potential return.

The Yankees, for instance, have shown interest in Bellinger in the past partly due to the connection with his father, Clay Bellinger, who played for them from 1999 to 2001.

If the Yankees fail to land Juan Soto or another marquee outfielder, Bellinger could emerge as a fallback option. However, his salary would likely require the Cubs to accept either an inflated contract in return or settle for marginal prospects.

The broader market further complicates Bellinger’s trade prospects. Teams that might pursue him are likely the same ones involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, making it difficult for the Cubs to gauge interest. Additionally, free agents like Anthony Santander and Tyler O’Neill present alternative options for teams seeking outfield help.

For now, Bellinger is in a holding pattern, with his trade market hinging on what happens with bigger names like Soto. Any team considering a deal for Bellinger will need to balance his potential upside with his contract’s financial risks.

If the Cubs can find a creative way to move Bellinger, it could open opportunities to address other roster needs, particularly in pitching, which remains their top priority this offseason. However, unless a team emerges willing to absorb Bellinger’s contract without significant concessions, the Cubs might find themselves holding onto their first baseman/outfielder for at least another season.