The Green Bay Packers stare down a familiar face when they meet the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football on October 26. That would be the former “face” of the franchise, Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers, who Green Bay traded away in the spring of 2023, is now the quarterback in Pittsburgh, trying to get his new team back on track after an ugly upset loss last Thursday. To that I say, “Hard Cheese”.
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My Packers vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks expect Green Bay to topple the home side.
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Packers vs Steelers prediction
Packers vs Steelers Best bet: Packers moneyline (-174)
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ loss to Cincinnati last Thursday can be taken with a grain of salt, given that midweek games have produced weird results. But at the core of that awful outing was a rotten run-stop unit for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers couldn’t contain the Bengals’ ground game, allowing 142 rushing yards and 6.2 yards per carry, which helped Cincy chew up 34:32 in time of possession.
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The defensive front just isn’t holding up, with Pittsburgh rating 22nd in EPA allowed per handoff, 24th in run defensive DVOA, and 25th in run stop win rate at ESPN.
The Green Bay Packers are the perfect foil for that leaky defense, entering Week 8 among the most run-heavy and efficient rushing playbooks in the NFL.
The Packers hand off at the fourth-highest rate and boast a Top 10 run game in many advanced metrics, including success rate per handoff and run block win rate.
Controlling the football on the ground doesn’t just wear down this suspect Steelers’ stop unit, but also does a world of good for Green Bay’s defense.
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The game script has the Steelers playing from behind at home, and limited touches could force Pittsburgh to go pass heavy, making this offense more susceptible to the Cheeseheads’ vaunted pass rush. That’s not what you want with a less-than-mobile QB like Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers defense, which ranks Top 10 in DVOA and PFF rating, has begun to generate consistent pressure since the Week 5 bye. Green Bay scored six sacks in last week’s win over Arizona, upping its pressure rate to ninth in the NFL with 18 sacks and 29 QB hits — third most in the league. It’s done this damage with just the front four, boasting one of the lowest blitz rates.
Pittsburgh’s pass protection wasn’t great to begin with and could be missing a huge piece in starting center Zach Frazier, who popped up on the Week 8 injury report.
Even with Frazier in, the Steelers’ O-line is giving up the 13th-highest pressure rate and sits 24th in pass block rating at PFF and 28th in pass block win rate.
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Rodgers has struggled against stronger four-man rushes, sinking to the bottom of the advanced QB analytics when under pressure. He faced similar pressure from Seattle and New England earlier this season, going a combined 34-for-56 passing (61%) with three interceptions and three sacks taken.
This spread has bounced between Packers -3 and -3.5 this week. I respect Mike Tomlin as a home underdog (71% ATS since 2007), so we’ll keep it simple and stick to the Green Bay moneyline on SNF.
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Packers vs Steelers SNF same-game parlay
The Packers can run all over the Steelers on both sides of the ball, exploiting a soft run stop and poor pass protection.
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With Rodgers feeling the heat, Jaylen Warren will be a pressure release in the pass game.
Tucker Kraft is Jordan Love’s favorite red-zone target and takes on a Pittsburgh defense getting beaten up by tight ends.
Packers vs Steelers SGP
- Packers moneyline
- Jaylen Warren Over 20.5 receiving yards
- Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Touchdown frenzy
Metcalf has four touchdowns and is a deep threat with Green Bay’s safeties nursing injuries.
Packers vs Steelers SGP
- Packers moneyline
- Jaylen Warren Over 20.5 receiving yards
- Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown
- DK Metcalf anytime touchdown
Packers vs Steelers odds
- Spread: Green Bay -3 (-118) | Pittsburgh +3 (-104)
- Moneyline: Green Bay -174 | Pittsburgh +146
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-105) | Under 45.5 (-115)
Packers vs Steelers betting trend to know
Much is made of Mike Tomlin’s ATS record as home underdog (20-7-3 ATS), but Pittsburgh is also 10-20 Over/Under in those games since 2007 (66% Unders). Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Steelers.
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How to watch Packers vs Steelers
| Location | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Sunday, October 26, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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