With qualifying offer news making its way around, there’s no better time than the present to cover a potential fit between the Yankees and one of the big dogs in this offseason’s free agent class.
Coming off of another excellent year with the Brewers, Willy Adames is in prime position to get himself paid. Whether or not the shortstop has any kind of fit in the Bronx, he will be one of the more sought after free agents over the course of this season.
Adames broke into the majors as one of baseball’s premier prospects, entering the 2018 season as FanGraphs’ 11th overall prospect in the sport.
For the most part, he didn’t disappoint in a half season that year, and followed it with another solid showing in his first full go-around in 2019, swatting 20 homers as a league-average bat at shortstop with the Rays.
Adames really began to break out of his shell in 2020, and although the shortened season dampened his total output, the 126 wRC+ in 54 games was certainly a promising sight for him and Tampa Bay.
The first half of 2021, however, was not so kind to him, as Adames headed toward the trade deadline hitting below the Mendoza line, and playing his worst baseball as a big leaguer.
A change of scenery was in order, and the Rays shipped him off to Milwaukee, a move that would prove to be enormous for his career outlook.
In 99 games with the Brewers to finish out the season, Adames belted 20 homers and slashed .285/.366/.521, leading the Crew to a first-place finish in the Central, even garnering some down-ballot MVP love.
From that point forward, Adames put up three consecutive great seasons as the Brewers shortstop, before now hitting free agency.
Most recently, the former Ray wrapped up the 2024 season with career bests in homers (32) and fWAR (4.8), while maintaining his lowest strikeout rate as a big leaguer.
Perhaps most importantly, Adames has shown himself to be a consistent and significant producer over the last three-plus seasons, which can be as important a factor as any in free agency.
The 29-year-old has made fairly consistent, high quality contact in his recent seasons as well.
His xwOBA was at it’s best in 2024, ranking in the 76th percentile, and he’s been in the 80th percentile or better in each of the last three years in barrel rate. This is all to say, of course, that Adames has turned himself into a very solid weapon with the bat.
Adames took a small step back defensively by some measures, though fielding metrics can be hard to trust in just a one year sample, and he was top notch in the years leading up to it, in the 96th then 99th percentile in outs above average.
All told, Adames has a good glove and an above average arm at a premium position, all while being a consistent threat in the lineup. He is going to get himself paid.
This brings us to the all-important fit with the Yankees. The team in the Bronx does already have a shortstop, 23-year-old Anthony Volpe, whom very much believe in.
With that in mind, Adames would be a big investment as someone who hasn’t appeared at any position other than short since 2018.
Though crazier things have happened, and Adames will be a good player anywhere you put him. If the dominos fall a certain way, there could be a way to make it work in a Yankee infield that currently has multiple vacancies.
The crowdsourced projections at FanGraphs foresee Adames cashing in on one of the biggest contracts of the offseason at six years and $150 million, which may seem steep, but is believable given his level of consistent production.
This would be a similar figure to recent contracts given out to the likes of Dansby Swanson and Trevor Story, to varying degrees of success.
Any team would be fortunate to have a player of Adames’ caliber in the fold, the question for the Yankees, however, is regarding the exact fit for him on the roster.
Retaining the services of one Juan Soto will obviously be the Yankees’ priority this offseason, but Adames could reasonably be part of a plan-B scramble to make up for failing to sign Soto. One way or another, Adames is looking at a much deserved payday.
