The Orioles have won 192 games across the last two seasons. It’s an amazing accomplishment that was about as good as any fan could have dreamed when the team fell into the basement in the 2018 season.
It also hasn’t been good enough. Those regular season victories have resulted in two postseason appearances where the Orioles did not win even one game.
In Birdland, everyone is anxious to find out what the Orioles are going to do over the course of this offseason to change that fortune for the 2025 campaign. Even before the team’s defeat in the wild card round, the prolonged struggle from the offense made it clear that there were going to need to be changes heading into next year. Add to that the holes in the roster from ace Corbin Burnes and slugger Anthony Santander becoming free agents and Mike Elias has some work to do.
Whether the additions come in free agency or by trade, there are a few areas that the Orioles are going to need to address. A full offseason with David Rubenstein’s group as the official owners of the franchise could mean that the team actually has a chance of signing a pitcher who makes a big, positive impact for the first time in a long time.
The still-strong farm system could be used as an asset to bring in contributors also.
Top of the rotation starting pitcher
One of the tragedies of the 2024 Orioles season is that they made a big trade to bring in an ace pitcher with just one season remaining before free agency to pitch in big postseason games. They got Burnes, he pitched like an ace for nearly the entire year, including Game 1 of the wild card series, and they still lost.
As things stand right now, the starting rotation for 2025 probably looks like this:
- Zach Eflin
- Grayson Rodriguez
- Dean Kremer or Albert Suárez
- Kremer or Suárez
- Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, or Brandon Young
Kyle Bradish’s return from Tommy John surgery should happen in the second half of the season, but he’s not in the picture until then.
This is a group of pitchers where, if things work out for most of them, it could be an acceptable rotation. The Orioles cannot afford to take it for granted that this group will all be good and healthy through 2025.
If the team can improve by adding a pitcher who slots in at either the 1, 2, or even 3 spots and pushes everyone else down, that will be beneficial to their chances.
If Elias is to be believed, the Orioles are engaged in discussions with the pitchers at the top end of the market. I’ll believe in a signing when I see it happen. Discussing things doesn’t mean much if you don’t end up signing a pitcher who is going to help the team for multiple seasons.
Who that might be depends on how you evaluate the risk of these players and on how much of Rubenstein’s money you’re willing to plow into the budget.
Burnes is probably the free agent with the most consistent track record who’s on the market this year. He’s also going to be looking for a contract that matches that reputation. If he wants seven years and in excess of $30 million per year, is that something that the Orioles should do? Also at the top of the market are lefties Max Fried and Blake Snell, though neither one of those guys has Burnes’s track record of durability or consistent quality.
Despite what Elias says and what we all want to believe about new ownership, it could end up that any pitcher looking for a nine figure contract is not coming here.
That would leave the Orioles looking at qualifying offer-attached free agents like Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino, or non-QO mercurial guys such as Jack Flaherty – yes, that one – or Yusei Kikuchi.
Or perhaps the trade market is the way to go? The White Sox are probably going to stink again next year, and it would be wise for them to have Garrett Crochet on the trade market. Crochet was never a starting pitcher until 2024, which gives something of a question mark about how much he can do over the next two years before he becomes a free agent.
My dream is the longshot of the Orioles landing Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, who’s expected to be posted under the international signing system and won’t require a massive expenditure as a result.
Right-handed batting outfielder
If no other change is made to the Orioles roster between now and the start of the 2025 season, they will roll into the year with three lefty-batting outfielders as their presumed starting group: Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, and Heston Kjerstad.
The O’s as a team were platoon-neutral for this year, with a .751 OPS against righty pitchers and a .750 OPS against left, but lefty batters vs. lefty pitchers was the weakest split.
The free agent market for right-handed outfielders is not a deep one. You could make a real argument that the best one available is one we’re familiar with: The switch-hitting Santander, who just broke out for 44 homers in time for his free agency.
Or maybe the best righty outfielder money can buy this offseason is Teoscar Hernández, who’s already 32 but might command a shorter contract than Santander as a result.
Maybe the Orioles will have an easier time luring a right-handed power hitter with the pending change to the Oriole Park at Camden Yards dimensions for the 2025 season.
Though the pre-2022 dimensions aren’t being restored, the O’s are bringing the left field fences back in and having shorter walls as well.
Again thinking about mining the White Sox for talent here, 27-year-old Luis Robert Jr. might be something of a buy-low trade candidate. Robert’s fresh off his worst season since arriving in MLB from Cuba, as he batted just .224/.278/.379 over 100 games.
Robert is due to make $15 million next year with a team option for $20 million for each of 2026 and 2027. I’m not interested in any more buy-low White Sox after Eloy Jiménez, but Elias often feels differently than I do.
A catcher to shoulder 40-50% of the load
Part of the story of the 2024 Orioles is that Adley Rutschman was really bad at hitting from July onwards. As far as Rutschman himself, manager Brandon Hyde, and Elias have said publicly, whatever he was going through was the result of normal wear and tear on a catcher.
His split between when he was catching (.650 OPS) and when he was the designated hitter (.854 OPS) is a striking one.
What I find discouraging about this explanation is that Rutschman didn’t even have a particularly heavy workload as a catcher this season. He only started 99 games at the position.
That’s a long way off from the days where the Orioles ran Matt Wieters into the ground with 130+ starts in back-to-back seasons.
I don’t want to see Rutschman forced to catch that much, but if he’s getting wear and tear with fewer than 100 starts, what do we even make of that?
If the backup catcher is going to shoulder as much or more of the workload as James McCann did over the past two seasons, the Orioles are going to need to find a better player for that role, whether that’s better hitting, better defense, or both.
McCann’s “will play a whole game after being hit in the face by a baseball” toughness is a fine intangible, but the Orioles need some more tangibles from their next second catcher.
This could be a tough sell for any free agent who wants to be “the guy” somewhere. Possibly the best guy here might have been Travis d’Arnaud, who already signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Angels.
A veteran like Yasmani Grandal, who just turned 36 after posting a .704 OPS in 72 games with the Pirates this season, might be someone to explore here. Danny Jansen, who had some fine seasons with the Jays from 2020-23, could be worthwhile too, though he suffered a decline last year.
Honorable mention: Bullpen
I fear that assuming Félix Bautista is going to come back immediately looking like his pre-surgery pitching self will end poorly for anyone who does it.
Who’s your ideal to fill each of these needs on next year’s roster? Are there any other moves that you think the Orioles need to make to have the best possible 2025 season that they can?
