Red Sox Tabbed to Trade Jarren Duran For 2-Time 1st-Round Pick Lefty Ace

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Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox finally broke their postseason drought this season, not only getting into the playoffs but winning a postseason game for the first time since 2021 — and only the second since winning the World Series in 2018. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, that was as far as they got.

Their season crashed to an end in the American League Wild Card series, dropping the second two games of the best-of-three set to the New York Yankees.

Looking to build on the Red Sox’ limited but encouraging success in 2024, Boston chief of baseball operations Craig Breslow has said that a top priority in the coming offseason will be to add a top-of-the-line starter to take the No. 2 spot in the starting rotation behind 2025 Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet.

At the same time, the Red Sox have outfielders they can use as trade chips to offer for a frontline starting pitcher. With rookie sensation Roman Anthony, 2024 Gold Glover Wilyer Abreu, elite defensive center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, as well as Masataka Yoshida and fan-favorite Jarren Duran all competing for spots, Breslow has plenty to work with.

Duran appears to be the most tradeable of the bunch. Perhaps the most likely pitcher, or among the likeliest, who could be obtained in exchange for Duran and a prospect package, appears to the Cincinnati Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo.

Here’s why.

Duran Remains Under Team Control

Duran’s performance declined after his 2024 breakout season — when he was named All-Star Game MVP — with an OPS dropping from .834 to .774 while his seven outfield errors were a career high. His stolen base count fell significantly, from 34 in 41 tries to 24 in 30 attempts.

A late bloomer, Duran remains under team control for three more seasons despite that he’ll reach his 30th birthday during the 2026 season. But he is owed $8 million under a club option next year, a substantial raise over the $3.75 million he earned in 2025.

The five-year veteran’s name came up in trade rumors seemingly all season long, especially around the trade deadline.

Just as the Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders, the Cincinnati Reds arguably have enough quality starting pitchers to make at least one tradeable. It was their pitching that got the Reds their first playoff berth in a full season since 2013 (they also qualified in the 2020 pandemic year in a truncated season with an expanded playoff format). Their offensive production of 4.42 runs per game ranked them a mediocre 14th.

Their starting staff ERA of 3.85 placed ninth in MLB. The Red Sox starters were 12th at 3.92.

Lodolo Back at Full Health

“If the Reds were to seriously consider trading for Duran, the package would likely have to be built around Lodolo,” wrote analyst Drew Koch of the Blog Red Machine site. “The Reds lefty has had difficulty staying healthy in years past, but in 2025, Lodolo has been incredibly durable.”

The 27-year-old Lodolo made 28 starts, with one relief appearance, for the Reds this season, posting a 3.38 ERA and a 4.9 WAR. Duran’s WAR was similar at 4.6. While a stress fracture on his leg derailed his sophomore season after he placed sixth in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2022, he appears to be back at full strength.

In Lodolo, the Red Sox would also be getting a pitcher who belongs to what Fangraphs called “a small but fascinating subclass of ballplayer: The two-time first-round pitcher.”

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected Lodolo in the first round — with the final pick of the compensation round — in 2016 out of Damien High School in the Los Angeles suburb of La Verne, California. The then-teenage lefty chose instead to attend Texas Christian University.

Three years later, the Reds made him the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Jonathan Vankin JONATHAN VANKIN is an award-winning journalist and writer who now covers baseball and other sports for Heavy.com. He twice won New England Press Association awards for sports feature writing. He was a sports editor and writer at The Daily Yomiuri in Tokyo, Japan, covering Japan Pro Baseball, boxing, sumo and other sports. More about Jonathan Vankin