The trio will become free agents, though returning to the Mets is on the table for all three

The Mets handed out three qualifying offers this off season, and all three got declined. Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino all made the decision to turn down the $21.05m offer, becoming free agents — in Alonso’s case, for the first time in his career, and for the second time in two years for both Manaea and Severino. If any of the three players sign elsewhere, the Mets will receive draft pick compensation.

Two of these were no surprise at all. Alonso, despite putting together his two lowest wRC+s of his career the last two seasons (omitting the COVID shortened 20202 campaign), notching a 121 wRC+ in 2023, and a 122 wRC+ last season, was never going to accept the qualifying offer. He still was the fourth best offensive first baseman in the league in 2024, and is a virtual lock to get a big contract this winter as one of the top bats available after Juan Soto. Sean Manaea was the other non-surprise, as the lefty had a revolutionary second half of the season. After watching Chris Sale and modifying his mechanics to mimic the ace lefty, he turned himself into the ace of the Mets. His strikeout rate jumped from 24% to 26% in the second half, and his walk rate dropped from 10% to 6.8%. He was their best pitcher by far in the playoffs. He was always going to use that to get himself a long term deal, and that may even be with the Mets themselves, who are interested in retaining him.

The wild card here was Luis Severino. After three unhealthy seasons in a row to end his tenure in the Bronx, Severino was a picture of health for the Mets. He made 31 starts (second most in his career), and threw 182 innings (third most in his career). While he was not the ace he was for the 2017 and 2018 Yankees, he was a solid and reliable pitcher, pitching to a 3.91 ERA. He did not miss any bats, striking out 21.2% of batters, but he got the job done, relatively speaking. He could have gone either way, in my opinion — taking a $21.05m payday and getting the chance to hit the market again, or using his first healthy season since 2018 to get some stability, which he could not have gotten as a free agent last season. Overall, he chose the latter.

The Mets, fresh off an NLCS appearance, will likely be in the market for at least one player who declined their own qualifying offer, which would help balance out losing one of Alonso, Manaea or Severino. It also does not preclude them from re-signing one of them as well, keeping David Stearn’s options open as he continues to act out his off season plans.