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Framber Valdez denied crossing up catcher Cesar Salazar on purpose.

The Houston Astros missed the MLB playoffs for the first time since 2016 this season. Overall, it was a bad last week and a half of the regular season for Houston that kept them from playing October baseball.

However, now it is the offseason, and the Astros’ front office execs have decisions to make about several players and how to fill their void. One of the most anticipated free agency decisions this offseason is Framber Valdez. The southpaw is expected to leave in search of a lucrative deal with another organization.

The San Diego Padres’ Dylan Cease is going to be one of the top free-agent starting pitchers in MLB. If Valdez is going to be departing from the Astros’ rotation, they would have to consider adding another quality arm to pair with Hunter Brown.

The only issue is that it’s hard to evaluate Cease’s worth after he posted a 4.55 ERA this season.

“However, in this case, it has felt inevitable that both the Astros and Framber Valdez will be content to pursue new relationships this winter. And if Valdez does walk, Houston’s rotation becomes Hunter Brown and a steady refrain of: “If he’s healthy.”

Some of the other options in the Astros’ rotation are Christian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr, Spencer Arrighetti, and Jason Alexander. There are some quality arms in that bunch, but also injury problems. The reason some believe the Astros’ contention window may be closing is because of this faulty rotation outlook. However, adding Dylan Cease would provide Houston with a quality No.2 option.

Despite the high-ish ERA, Cease also has a lot of value in other ways, and can also potentially be acquired on a slight bargain because of his low leverage. Houston already has a high payroll, but if Cease’s AAV is somewhere in the $15-20 range, they’d be able to compensate if Valdez is a goner.

Dylan Cease’s 2025 Season by the Numbers

2025 was Dylan Cease’s “prove-it” year, and he disappointed in some people’s eyes because of his high walk rate and giving up 21 home runs in 168 innings.

However, he also recorded 11.1 K/9 and 215 total strikeouts on the year. Some of the underlying data points to the fact that he had an unlucky season, but there’s no sugarcoating that a 4.55 ERA is ugly.

One thing he’s always had going for him is his ability to take the ball every fifth day. Over the last five seasons, Cease has averaged 32 starts per season, which is pretty much the maximum amount of starts you can make in a season, and his strikeout stuff has not taken a dip.

Cease’s free agency sweepstakes will be a great measuring stick for where the starting pitcher market is, and will give all MLB organizations a feel of how much a durable starter with high strikeout stuff will cost.

Dylan Cease will be looking for a multi-year extension from someone this offseason, and expects it to be in the nine-figure range.