Alex Anthopoulos balked at the opportunity at finding a long-term solution at shortstop a few offseasons ago when Dansby Swanson entered free agency in the most loaded class in recent memory. It was a class headlined by Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts. Instead of getting into a bidding war with the Twins, Phillies, Padres, or Cubs, Anthopoulos decided to go with Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia.

The overwhelming expectation was that Grissom would win the job out of Spring Training, but Arcia ended up the Opening Day shortstop before earning All-Star honors for the first time in his career. Anthopoulos looked like a genius.

Not only was Arcia playing as well as any shortstop in baseball during the first half of 2023, but the Braves were also paying him a fraction of the price other clubs were paying comparable shortstops. Unfortunately, the Orlando Arcia experiment has worn thin on Braves fans since that memorable first half last year. His antics and on-field struggles have been a thorn in the sides of Atlanta fans since the 2023 NLDS debacle with Bryce Harper.

Braves Country is ready to move on from Orlando Arcia this offseason, with Willy Adames standing alone at the position in free agency. He’ll likely garner a contract in the ballpark of $150-200 million over six years, and Ken Rosenthal heeds a warning for teams targeting him.

“Javier Báez (six years, $140 million) has been a bust. Trevor Story (six years, $140 million) has missed nearly two-thirds of his team’s games due to injuries; Carlos Correa (six years, $200 million) nearly one-third. Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177 million) has been elite defensively, but only average offensively,” Rosenthal writes.

“Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340 million) moved off shortstop, only to become an elite right fielder and demonstrate in the postseason that he again could become the offensive force he was earlier in his career. Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million) also moved off short — after just one season, no less…

Among the big-money shortstops, Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million) and Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million) have produced the best returns thus far. Using Fangraphs’ dollars metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency, Lindor has given the Mets $157.1 million of value in his first three seasons, while Seager has provided the Texas Rangers $121.8 million of value in his first three,” Rosenthal finished.

Willy Adames is incredibly durable, which has to be intriguing for a Braves team that prefers their position players to play every day. He’s appeared in 90+ percent of his club’s games from 2019 to 2024 and is coming off a career-high 32 homers, 112 RBIs and 21 stolen bases. However, his defense regressed this year, which isn’t a good sign for an aging shortstop.

Based on recent history, the likelihood that a mega contract works in the Braves favor is unlikely. Adames is a great talent, but the club is probably better off rolling with Orlando Arcia, Ha-Seong Kim, or another less expensive option.

If the Braves weren’t decimated by injuries, Arcia’s struggles wouldn’t have been such a big talking point. I imagine that’s what Anthopoulos is thinking too. If everyone is healthy, all the Braves need is Arcia to hit 15-ish home runs at the bottom of the lineup and play solid defense. That’s something he can do, and he’s only set to make $2 million again next season.

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Photographer: Justin Berl/Icon Sportswire