Juan Soto's estimated contract will test how deep Phillies’ pockets really are

In what will definitely be the talk of the winter, Juan Soto has set himself up about as good as one can. Coming up on his 26th birthday, the already veteran slugger is due for a massive payday this offseason.

In 2024, the 25-year-old hit .288 with a .989 OPS, smashing 41 home runs while also walking an astounding 129 times, 10 more times than he struck out. On the New York Yankees’ run in the MLB playoffs, he has been the team leader, carrying the Yankees on his back at times and creating some incredible moments like his three-run home run in extra innings of Game 5 of the ALCS to send his team to the World Series.

None of this mentions his 201 career homers, his .285 batting average and his six seasons eclipsing .900 OPS before evening turning 26. The Dominican Republic native has been an All-Star and Silver Slugger four times in his career and finished top-nine in MVP voting four times, with likely a top-three finish in 2024. He has earned every penny.

Spotrac, the largest online sports team and player contract resource on the internet has a feature that uses the market and comparable contracts to estimate a player’s value and what they would receive as a free agent. With Soto’s offseason coming up, the program landed on something historic.

(Barely 25-year-old) Juan Soto will enter free agency as a 14 year, $514M player in our system, mathematically speaking. It's the highest single-position valuation our algorithm has ever spit out, and it feels like a starting point – not an end game for negotiations.

— Spotrac (@spotrac) October 20, 2024

The $500 million mark is one that has only been broken by one player in baseball history. One who plays both sides of the ball, is a multiple-time MVP winner, and has already had a legacied career across the world in Shohei Ohtani when he received $700 million last offseason.

While it would be tough for Soto to reach that number, it is not unlikely that a short supply of true star talent and a high demand for a generational player would drive that price tag up even higher than the estimation.

Media outlets have put the Phillies in contention, but still on the outside looking in as the favorites, the Yankees, and a close second, the New York Mets, have a better opportunity. The deep pockets of owner Steve Cohen and the familiarity and success Soto has seen with the Yankees this season will make it tough for him to leave the city.

John Middleton and the Phillies know how to spend too

As seen last offseason when it was uncovered that the Phillies made a push for Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, offering an outstanding figure (subscription required) that was reported as “more than any team” by Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies front office will spend, even with some long-term deals already on the books.

Recent deals have seen the Phillies sign or extend players in the nine-figure realm, such as Trea Turner, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Phillies managing partner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have previously spoken about the concept of “stupid money” and doing whatever it takes to win.

A huge Juan Soto offer this offseason will reinforce that position of whatever it takes, whether he is wearing red pinstripes in March or not. But like everything, money has it’s limits.