The Chicago Cubs are in the postseason after a full 162 games for the first time in seven years, and they will host the San Diego Padres in a best-of-three National League Wild Card series starting Tuesday afternoon at Wrigley Field.

Chicago earned the NL’s top Wild Card spot with a 92-70 regular-season record, two games better than San Diego. The teams have not faced each other since April 16, so there is not much recent familiarity between the current rosters. The Cubs and Padres split their six meetings in the regular season, with each team winning two out of three at home.

Here are the ways the Cubs can advance to face the division rival Milwaukee Brewers in the next round, and the ways they could fall short and see their postseason run end abruptly.

The Cubs’ offense may have found its stride again

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On the whole, Chicago had an excellent offensive season thanks to career-best seasons from several starting position players, including Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong. But after setting the league on fire for the first half of the year, everybody seemed to go cold at once as the Cubs’ offense sputtered throughout much of July, August and into September.

The final homestand, though, offered encouraging signs. Suzuki had a .573 OPS in a 54-game stretch prior to last Thursday before hitting five home runs over his last four games to finish with 32 homers and 103 runs batted in.

Busch went deep four times in five games to end the regular season, leading the team with 34 long balls. Crow-Armstrong became the first Cub with 30 homers and 30 steals in a season since Sammy Sosa in 1995, going deep on back-to-back days last weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cubs have three players with 30-plus home runs for the first time since 2004, when they had four players (Sosa, Moises Alou, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee) all accomplish the feat. Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson all went deep at least 22 times, while Nico Hoerner, Carson Kelly and Matt Shaw have all had hot streaks at times this season.

Chicago’s bats may just be starting to peak again at the right time.

The pitching staff will find the right formula

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Rookie of the Year candidate Cade Horton’s absence hurts, but the Cubs have done just fine all year with their pitching staff in a state of flux.

Game 1 starter Matthew Boyd was an under-the-radar signing that exceeded all expectations. Shota Imanaga pounds the strike zone and enjoyed another solid year. Jameson Taillon has looked sharp since his return from the injured list. Chicago could hardly have expected Colin Rea to make 27 starts and finish second on the team in innings pitched, but he has also been a solid contributor with back-to-back excellent outings to finish the season.

The bullpen has been a similar story. The Cubs’ veteran-laden relief corps is led by unexpected bright spots like Brad Keller, Caleb Theilbar and Drew Pomeranz, plus trade deadline pickups like Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers.

The ability to put swingmen like Michael Soroka, Javier Assad and Aaron Civale in the bullpen for a short series will also help, especially with Daniel Palencia’s role uncertain following his return from a shoulder injury.

Home-field advantage

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Tuesday and Wednesday’s games will both start just after 2 p.m. local time, but the crowd at Wrigley will surely be fired up for the Cubs’ first playoff games in front of live fans since 2018. Chicago is 50-29 at its home ballpark this year, while the Padres are just 38-43 on the road.

In the Wild Card series era (since 2022), home teams have actually lost eight of the 12 series, but familiarity with a unique ballpark such as Wrigley can only help. The wind has blown in for the majority of Cubs home games this year, and if it continues to do so this week, it could provide a big lift to fly ball pitchers like Imanaga.

Padres manager Mike Shildt acknowledged as much Monday, saying, “There’s not another ballpark, I would say, that could be any trickier than Wrigley.”

Why the Cubs won’t beat the Padres

San Diego pitching will silence the Cubs’ bats

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The Padres rank third in MLB and second in the NL with a 3.63 team ERA, thanks in large part to the best bullpen in baseball. San Diego relievers have a league-leading 3.06 ERA, and the rotation has been strong as well, led by Game 1 starter Nick Pivetta and former Cubs prospect Dylan Cease, who will start Game 2.

Pivetta had the best season of his lengthy career, finishing 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 181 2/3 innings pitched. Cease took a step back after an excellent year in 2024, but he did come on strong late, winning five of his last seven decisions.

The bullpen, meanwhile, is absolutely stacked, led by closer Robert Suarez, trade deadline acquisition Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and former Cub Jeremiah Estrada.

That pitching staff could easily make Chicago’s offense look like the unit that floundered for several weeks in the second half. Tucker is not back at full strength yet following his return from a calf injury, and Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong are streaky hitters who could be done in by an untimely cold stretch.

Cade Horton’s absence is a hole too big to fill

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The Cubs lost their shiny new ace to a rib injury following his start last Tuesday against the New York Mets, and he will not be able to return until a potential Game 5 of the NL Division Series, if the Cubs get that far. Horton was by far Chicago’s best pitcher in the second half — Boyd allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last seven outings, and Imanaga has given up 12 home runs in his last six starts.

San Diego’s offense is not the scariest in the league, but any lineup with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill will be tough to navigate. Add in Jake Cronenworth, Ryan O’Hearn and NL hits leader Luis Arraez, and the Padres have the ability to put up crooked numbers against a Cubs staff that has been searching for consistency all year.

The Cubs have struggled to beat good teams lately

Chicago largely coasted into the postseason thanks to a weak schedule starting in late August. The Cubs played just two series against teams that finished with a winning record over their last 34 games, and they went 1-6 against the Cincinnati Reds — who surged into the playoffs thanks in part to a four-game sweep of Chicago — and the Mets, who were in the middle of a late-season collapse but still managed to win a series at Wrigley last week.

The Cubs finished just 38-46 against winning teams this year, compared to the Padres’ 43-43. It has also been six weeks since Chicago has even seen a team as good as San Diego. The Padres won 14 of their final 21 games and are coming into Wrigley playing some of their best baseball of the year.

If the Cubs don’t rise to the challenge, it will be a short postseason run for the North Siders.

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