Padres at Cubs Wild Card Game 1 prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, betting trends, stats

For the first time since 2020, the Chicago Cubs are back in the playoffs. They will host the San Diego Padres in a Wild Card series beginning Tuesday afternoon at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs (92-70) had lost six of their last seven until getting their house in order with a weekend, three-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals to close out the regular season. The Padres (90-72) threatened to dethrone the Dodgers for much of the season in the National League West but wound up falling just short. San Diego closed the regular season strong winning seven of their last eight games.

Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA) will take the ball in the series opener for San Diego. The veteran made an impressive 31 starts this season but struggled in his final two starts allowing six runs over 10.1 innings…but the Padres won both of those two starts. The Cubs have not announced their starter for Game 1. Cade Horton would have gotten the nod, but a broken rib has forced him the injured list.

While we wait for the Cubs’ announcement as to the starter for Game 1, lets take a deeper dive into this game and see if we can find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch the first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Padres at Cubs

Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Time: 3:08PM EST
Site: Wrigley Field
City: Chicago, IL
Network/Streaming: ABC

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Padres at the Cubs

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: San Diego Padres (-105), Chicago Cubs (-115)
Spread: Padres -1.5 (+166)
Total: 7.0 runs

Probable starting pitchers for San Diego at Chicago

Pitching matchup for September 30, 2025:
- Padres: Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA)
  The right hander has struck out at least five opposing hitters in 9 of his last 10 starts
- Cubs: TBD

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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Padres at Cubs

The Cubs are on a 3-game winning streak
The Over is 13-6-1 for the Cubs’ last 10 home games and the Padres’ last 10 on the road combined
The Padres have covered in 4 of their last 5 games showing a profit of 4.23 units
Manny Machado enjoyed another banner season in San Diego hitting .275 with 37 HRs and 95 RBIs
Machado has hit at least 27 HRs in 6 of 7 seasons in San Diego
Kyle Tucker is just 1-11 (.089) since returning from injury (calf)

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for Tuesday’s game between the Padres and the Cubs

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday’s game between the Padres and the Cubs:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the San Diego Padres on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the San Diego Padres at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 7.0.

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC

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